Brief comment on SMM
The main force of copper in Shanghai opened low and went high today, mainly due to further deterioration of market expectations of tight global copper supply. BHP Billiton today confirmed two confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia at the Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, amid concerns about a growing contradiction between supply and demand for copper around the world. Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2005 jumped short in the morning to open at 40570 yuan / ton, then the center of gravity slowly climbed, the afternoon opening, the bulls strengthened, pushing up the copper price, after a small fall, all the way up, closed at 41790 yuan / ton, up 950 yuan / ton, up 2.33%. Today, the transfer of the main force of Shanghai copper has been completed, the Shanghai copper index increased by 1320 hands to 334000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions; trading volume increased by 67000 hands to 208000 hands.
Shanghai copper rose sharply today, the technical side is good. At present, the main force of Shanghai Copper is close to the 42000 level to make up for the gap of jumping empty two weeks ago.
Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price for the current month contract up 30 yuan / ton ~ 60 yuan / ton, flat water copper transaction price 40880 yuan / ton ~ 41010 yuan / ton, rising water copper transaction price 40890 yuan / ton ~ 41020 yuan / ton. Today's Easter LME closed, Shanghai copper prices along the 40900 yuan / ton shock finishing. The morning market quotation rises 50 ~ 70 yuan / ton, but the market quotation transaction is suppressed, the holder strives to exchange, the quotation drops quickly, appears the almost halving situation again, until the flat water copper is as low as 30 yuan / ton, the good copper is as low as 40 yuan / ton, just ushered in a wave of positive trading, the low price source attracts the favor of some long single traders. The rising water can hold up, the flat water copper maintains the stability in the rising water 40-50 yuan / ton, the good copper quotes in the rising water 60 yuan / ton, the rising water maintains the stability but the transaction heat drops rapidly, the wet copper quotation is near the flat water copper. Today, the scope of the concussion, downstream trading participation is limited, the market trading is mainly led by traders, close to the low rising water pattern near Pingshui is favored by long single users, today and next Monday LME are closed, the domestic may lead out of the challenge 41000 yuan / ton barrier situation, but the spot market fear of high caution risk aversion is still difficult to dissipate.
Today, Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose by 90% to 100% for the current month, and wet copper rose by 40% to 50%. The average price of electrolytic copper fell 70 yuan per ton to 40955 yuan per ton, and the average price of wet copper fell 70 yuan per ton to 40905 yuan per ton. In the spot market, stimulated by the fact that Guangdong went to the warehouse (stocks in Guangdong have fallen to 74400 tons, which is now lower than the same period last year), the rising water in Guangdong did not fall with the decline in Shanghai today, and the trading price basically remained at yesterday's level, that is, 100 yuan / ton of good copper, 90 yuan / ton of flat copper and 50 yuan / ton of wet copper. In addition, as delivery approaches, warehouse receipt demand has been reduced than before, some of the choice of re-delivery, which will ease the pressure on supply. Overall, consumption in Guangdong has been good recently, and it is difficult to see a sharp decline in rising water.
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Today's warehouse receipt quotes US $73-85 / ton, bill of lading quotes US $70-82 / ton, QP May. The LME0-3 discount is US $26.50 / ton.
Today's market transactions are even more deserted than yesterday. Both buyers and sellers are less active because LME is closed on Friday and the market lacks a ratio guide. The seller said it was difficult to quote, but remained bullish on spot prices in the short term, with some holders maintaining yesterday's offer. On the other hand, at present, there is still a gap between the quotation and the buyer's psychological expectations, the overall demand is weak, and the market is in a stalemate.
At present, market transactions are concentrated in bills of lading at the end of April and early May, and far-monthly orders are affected by the delay of shipment by overseas smelters and uncertain shipping dates. The transaction price of fire method good copper warehouse bill is about 85 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 80 US dollars / ton, wet method 73 US dollars / ton, good copper bill of lading is 82 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 78 US dollars / ton, wet method 70 US dollars / ton.
LME was closed today and no inventory data were released.
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