COVID-19 to have a heavy impact of China steel exports

SHANGHAI, Mar 24 (SMM) – Up to 6 million mt per month of China’s exports of steel in the form of steel containing manufactured goods are expected to take a hit if the COVID-19 pandemic suspends business activity outside China, SMM estimates.

Rapidly growing numbers of cases have forced European countries and the United States to put more stringent measures in place to contain the spread of the virus, slowing economic activity across the regions. That sparks concerns about China’s steel exports, as European countries and the US are major destinations of China’s exports of steel-containing goods, such as motor-vehicles, tractors, washing-machines and refrigerators.

China’s indirect steel exports averaged 5.93 million mt per month in 2012-2017, accounting for 6.12% of the country’s monthly steel products production, according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).

Data from the Worldsteel also showed that indirect steel imports of the US, Germany, France, the UK and Italy—countries that have been hit hard by the virus, took up 14.7%, 7.88%, 4.18%, 4.06%, and 2.65%, respectively, of the world’s total indirect steel imports in 2012-2017.

There are no data directly showing the proportion of China’s indirect steel exports to European countries and the US to the country’s total exports, but data from the Worldsteel indicates that the proportion is unlikely to be low.

For China’s direct steel exports, the impact from the coronavirus is expected to be limited for the moment, as infections in top 10 buyers have peaked or remain low. China’s exports of steel products averaged 7.22 million mt per month in 2015-2019, accounting for 7.45% of the country’s production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Data from China customs showed that South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Malaysia were the top 10 destinations of China’s steel products exports, representing about 51.4% of the country’s total exports.

Cargoes are likely to be poured into China’s domestic market if exports are disrupted, which will weigh on steel prices in China.