SMM has undertaken further surveys covering the impact of the coronavirus outbreak issues in China on physical metals markets. In February, we will be hosting a 4-session special webinar series on the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Wednesdays and Fridays, 5pm CST. Our analysts will share their insights and outlook on the Chinese domestic market and look at how the virus outbreak will impact demand and supply of ferrous and nonferrous metals.
February 12 (Wednesday) 5pm CST: Macro overview with Copper and Zinc
The coronavirus outbreak looks set to take a toll on copper demand, while the impact on copper supply remains to be seen. That leaves China’s copper market to be oversupplied in the near term, weighing on copper prices.
A potentially sharp increase in zinc social inventories are likely to further hammer zinc prices, after the recovery of logistical services allows cargoes to move from smelters to social warehouses.
February 14 (Friday) 5pm CST: Aluminium supply chain
Concerns about the impact of the epidemic outbreak on aluminium consumption and higher inventories led to a decline of 3.5% in futures prices on the first trading day after the CNY holidays. Meanwhile, alumina prices have been rising in some regions due to logistics constrains.
February 19 (Wednesday) 5pm CST: Steel and Iron Ore
According to SMM research, steel mills in Hubei and Hunan whose raw materials procurement or business scope involves Hubei, the epicenter of the virus outbreak, may see their raw materials being able to sustain production for only a month. Given 85% of steel capacity is in coastal regions, impacts on imported raw materials should be relatively limited in the ferrous space.
February 21 (Friday) 5pm CST: Nickel & New Energy
Small and medium-scale cobalt producers are expected to see greater impact in the first quarter while major enterprises may feel smaller impact given their sufficient inventories and continued production during the holidays. Following SARS in 2003, auto sales rose strongly. Could we see an improved demand outlook for autos following the coronavirus outlook?