On Friday, Oct. 11, the dollar index fell to 98.188, its lowest level since Sept. 20, mainly due to optimistic prospects for trade talks between China and the United States, as the outlook for Brexit began to clear, safe-haven buying cooled and risk appetite improved. Tusk, president of the European Council, said: "Britain has still not put forward a practical proposal to leave the European Union, and has told Johnson that if there is no practical proposal today, there will be no chance of reaching an agreement at the summit." Tusk said that after meeting with Johnson yesterday, received a letter of agreement promised by the Irish prime minister, an agreement is still possible. In addition, in a previous speech, Fed Kashkari said, "if the Fed decides to cut interest rates in October, I may support it." According to the latest CME "Fed observation": the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% in October is 75.4%, and the probability of maintaining current interest rates is 24.6%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% in December is 58.9%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 24.5%, and the probability of maintaining current interest rates is 16.6%. According to the latest news, the new round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations ended in Washington. Under the guidance of the important consensus of the heads of state of the two countries, the two sides held frank, efficient and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues of common concern. The two sides have made substantial progress in agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rate, financial services, expansion of trade cooperation, technology transfer and dispute settlement. The two sides discussed the arrangements for follow-up consultations and agreed to work together in the direction of reaching a final agreement. The dollar index closed at 98.335, down nearly 0.4%. Lun metal rose and fell by more than 2%, Lun Zinc rose more than 2%, Lun Xi and Lun lead rose more than 1%, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Ni fell nearly 0.4%, and Lun Al fell nearly 1.6%. The domestic metal market is also red and green, Shanghai lead, thread up nearly 0.7%, Shanghai zinc, stainless steel up nearly 0.5%, Shanghai copper up nearly 0.4%, Shanghai nickel weak green, Shanghai tin down nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.7%. On the crude side, oil prices jumped to a two-week high, US oil rose nearly 2 per cent, oil distribution rose above $60, market risk appetite picked up oil prices, and the night of the attack on Iranian tankers contributed to the rally.
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October 10 LME copper stocks increased by 2475 tons and aluminum stocks increased by 2325 tons
On October 10, LME copper canceled warehouse receipts fell by 3.72%, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts dropped to 29.21%.
Overnight Financial data Review: Lun Zinc up more than 2%, Lun Xilun lead up more than 1%, the outlook for Brexit in China, the United States and the United Kingdom is optimistic that the dollar is lower.
"Prospect of Financial and Economic data: pay attention to the release of China's September Trade accounts on Sunday & IMF/ World Bank Annual meeting
Focus of the day
[SMM analysis: the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in September was lower than expected] according to SMM survey data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in September was 76.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the same period last year, and up 1.36 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises is lower than expected, some refined copper rod enterprises feedback, downstream cable "gold nine silver ten" consumption is lower than in previous years, resulting in copper rod order growth is limited, consumption is not as expected. "View details
[guest interview: the trade situation and environmental protection policies have a great impact on the copper bar industry.] on October 11, at the "2019 China Copper Industry chain Summit and Copper Rod Industry Summit Forum" jointly organized by SMM and International Trade Futures Co., Ltd., Foshan Guodong Copper Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Li Hongfa, Marketing Director of Ningbo Bowei Alloy material Co., Ltd. Shao Yang, General Manager of Ningbo Jinlong Copper Co., Ltd. Liu Jixiang, General Manager of Ningbo Xingaoda Metal New material Co., Ltd. Feng Xiqun, Deputy General Manager of Tongling Nonferrous Copper Crown Brass Bar Co., Ltd., and Executive Deputy General Manager of Zhejiang Keyu Metal Materials Co., Ltd. Jiang Shaojun, In this paper, the current situation, problems, future development prospects and copper price trend of copper rod industry are discussed. "View details
[SMM interpretation: the copper market supply trend has been set to remove the rate of weak consumption, "said Ye Jianhua, chief analyst for the copper industry at SMM. The main reason is the massive expansion of domestic smelter projects and the lack of support from domestic demand. At present, China's copper consumption has entered a slow growth range, from this year's research on the operating rate of copper processing enterprises are weakening, especially in the third quarter of the performance is more obvious. Inventory, the third quarter began to enter the domestic accumulation of the market, but due to the disturbance of the supply side, the current pace of accumulation is very slow, the performance of fundamental pressure is not obvious. In the long run, focus on consumption, especially grid investment and marginal improvements in cars. "View details
[SMM analysis: post-festival aluminum price weakening recycled aluminum ADC12 price where to go] overall, it is expected that the price of recycled aluminum ADC12 in October of the year will be relatively strong, especially the price of low-end goods may even rise to a certain extent, the price range of the whole ADC12 market will be narrowed, and the price gap with A00 aluminum price will also be reduced. After November, due to the increase in the number of imported aluminum alloy ingots, or will have a certain impact on the low-end market, the high-end market may also be affected indirectly, the ADC12 market price range will be opened again. High-end market prices still need to pay attention to downstream demand and changes in aluminum prices. "View details
[SMM survey: what is the expected operating rate of the primary lead smelter in October when the operating rate of the original lead smelter was 63.48% in September? Looking forward to October, most of the primary lead smelting enterprises are in a state of recovery. On the one hand, the orange early warning of heavy pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and its surrounding areas has been lifted, and the production restriction of smelting enterprises in Henan and other places has ended; on the other hand, for example, Henan Yuguang, Xing'an silver lead, Yunnan Mengzi and other smelting enterprises have finished overhauling. During the period, due to Henan Wanyang and other enter maintenance, but the impact is limited, it is expected that SMM10 month native lead enterprise operating rate rose 2.62% to 66.10% month-on-month. "View details
[SMM Analysis: what is the purpose of LME Nickel inventory reduction?] as of October 11, 2019, LME inventory had dropped to a low of 98600 tons in nearly seven years, including about 90, 000 tons of nickel beans and about 8000 tons of nickel plates. Since October 1, 2019, LME inventories have fallen by an average of 6600 tons per working day and nearly 60, 000 tons in nearly nine working days. The proportion of LME write-off warehouse receipts has been as high as 60%, although there has been a decline in the past two days, but the overall is still around 50%. LME inventory level and high write-off inventory proportion, resulting in the disk is more vulnerable to the risk of squeezing. "View details
[SMM dry goods: a list of the planned production capacity of the global lithium battery industry in 2019 (under continuous renewal)] in recent years, China's new energy vehicle and power battery industry has developed rapidly. According to relevant data, in 2018, China's cumulative production of power batteries reached 70.6 GWH, sales reached 62.3 GWH, and the total loading volume was 56.9 GWH, an increase of 56.3 percent over the same period last year. In the face of the rapid expansion of production, the competition among the major battery manufacturers is becoming more and more fierce. Not only China, Japan and South Korea are competing for each other, but Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have also joined the war without nitrate smoke. In order to better understand the new investment trends in the global lithium battery industry, SMM has sorted out the investment news of lithium batteries in various enterprises this year, and does not update them regularly. "View details
[SMM thread weekly carding: fundamental support superimposed news surface assist thread spot price still has the opportunity to rebound] after the peak season demand performance tends to be stable, the supply side is also basically stable-long process steel plant continues to be curbed by production restrictions, at the same time electric arc furnace steel plant continues to "rise" in the case of scrap steel prices continue to "rise", mid-September by the steel price upward and the return of production enthusiasm was hit. Overall, the supply and demand of threads in October was bistable, and the fundamentals did not fluctuate much in the short term, but the Bureau of Statistics will release industry-related macro data next week. If the data are better, coupled with the good news of "shaking hands" between China and the United States a few days ago, spot prices are highly likely to fluctuate on the strong side. "View details
[SMM thread analysis: supply and demand bistable thread basic support still exists] according to SMM research, under the condition of maintenance and production restriction, the production scheduling of mainstream building materials steel mills in October was 0.45% lower than that in September. As far as the electric arc furnace is concerned, as of today, the operating rate of the electric arc furnace steel plant is 57%. Under the sustained strength of scrap prices, the return to production of the electric arc furnace steel plant is "disillusioned", which is 2% lower than that in mid-September. Therefore, overall, although according to SMM steel statistics, as of today, the reduction of building materials caused by the overhaul of the steel plant in October is 275700 tons less than that in September, and the thread supply side remained basically stable in October. "View details
[SMM analysis: within the week dysprosium, terbium prices cut material after the market rare earth prices are weak and stable] SMM believes that the current Myanmar import gate is not clear, dysprosium, terbium prices still constitute a certain degree of support, it is expected that dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices short-term decline space is limited. Light rare earths, praseodymium and neodymium prices decline is not obvious, it is expected that the future if there is no demand to support praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices will decline, but overall short-term praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices may be weak and stable "View details
Important News of Metals and Industry
Indonesia is considering adjusting bauxite use tax rules due to a surge in production. According to foreign news on Oct. 11, a statement issued on Friday said the Indonesian government had begun to discuss a proposal by (West Kalimantan) in West Kalimantan Province to revise mining royalty rules after a sharp increase in production in recent months. West Kalimantan Province is rich in bauxite. "View details
[SMM News: Skorpion will close Zinc smelter for 4 months] Vedanta announced a few days ago that Skorpion Zinc, a subsidiary of Vedanta Zinc International, will close its zinc smelter at the RoshPinah mining base between November 2020 and February 2020 for a period of four months. "View details
[Belgian financial regulator launched a formal investigation into Nyrstar Zinc Mining Group] A spokesman for the Belgian Financial Services and Markets Authority said it had launched a formal investigation into Nyrstar, the zinc mining group. Nyrstar, which is majority-owned by commodities trader Tok (Trafigura), underwent a massive restructuring this year to avoid bankruptcy, raising its stake to 98 per cent from 24.4 per cent. Nyrstar, one of the world's largest zinc refining companies, has refineries in northern Europe, the United States and Australia, as well as zinc mining operations in North America. FSMA warned of Nyrstar's accounting transparency in June and began a formal investigation last month.
[zinc shares: net profit up 142.47%-153.49% over the same period last year] recently, Huludao Zinc Co., Ltd. announced its forecast results for the first three quarters of 2019. According to the forecast, the profit in the first three quarters was 132 million yuan to 138 million yuan, an increase of 142.47% to 153.49% over the same period last year. Third quarter profit is expected to be 64.31 million yuan-70.31 million yuan, an increase of 515.41%-572.82% over the same period last year. The main reason is that the manufacturing cost of the company's products has been effectively controlled; and the zinc processing fee price of the company's main products has maintained a good level, the above factors have promoted the company's business performance to get a greater growth.
[Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 41 per cent in September from a year earlier] on October 11, data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade on Friday showed that Indonesian exports of refined tin products fell 41 per cent in September from a year earlier. Indonesia exported 5225.26 tons of refined tin last month, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year, according to data. Refined tin exports fell 5 per cent in September from the previous month on a monthly basis. "View details
[SMM Express: NAIF may fund a renewable energy-driven manganese metal project in North Australia and Washington] it has been reported recently that the Australian federal government's North Australia Infrastructure Fund has agreed to conduct due diligence on a groundbreaking mining project in Western Australia that can use renewable energy-based power to provide cheap electricity to produce manganese metal. "View details
After the auction of 21 tons of metal cobalt in the Pan-Asia incident at the beginning of this month, the Intermediate people's Court of Kunming City of Yunnan Province issued a public announcement and decided that the auction of selenium, tellurium, germanium and gallium germanium will be auctioned at the end of October. The Kunming Intermediate people's Court of Yunnan Province will hold a public judicial auction on the Alibaba Judicial Network auction platform of the Kunming Intermediate people's Court of Yunnan Province from 10:00 on October 27, 2019 to 10:00 on October 28, 2019. The auction is mainly small metal selenium, tellurium, germanium and gallium. "View details
[review: timeline for imposing tariffs on each other in the process of Trade frictions] A new round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States ended in Washington recently. From 10 to 11 October, Liu he, member of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, held a new round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Washington. Under the guidance of the important consensus of the two heads of state, the two sides held frank, efficient and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues of common concern. The two sides have made substantial progress in agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rate, financial services, expansion of trade cooperation, technology transfer and dispute settlement. The two sides discussed the arrangements for follow-up consultations and agreed to work together in the direction of reaching a final agreement. "View details
[central bank: no reverse repurchase operation on October 12] due to factors such as the maturity of the central bank's reverse repurchase and the issuance and payment of government bonds, the total liquidity of the banking system has declined recently, but it is still at a reasonable and adequate level. The reverse repurchase operation will not be carried out on October 12, 2019.
Central bank: try to avoid large fluctuations in the market caused by the identification of standard bond assets, whether or not to fully respect the wishes of relevant market participants and infrastructure institutions, and provide that the regulatory requirements for stock assets shall remain unchanged during the transitional period, promote a smooth transition in the market, and effectively guard against the risk of disposal.
[Trump: the United States will suspend the imposition of tariffs on China on the 15th] on Friday afternoon local time, Trump said at the White House that the US-China economic and trade consultations have achieved substantial results in the first phase, and that the United States will postpone the imposition of tariffs on China on the 15th of next week. The US had planned to raise tariffs on about $250 billion of Chinese goods from 25 per cent to 30 per cent on October 15th.
[many people have been taken compulsory measures in Wuxi viaduct rollover accident] according to Wuxi release, after the viaduct overturning accident, Wuxi City quickly set up a traffic accident investigation team to fully carry out accident investigation. On 11 October, the accident investigation was officially launched. The investigation team launched a preliminary investigation into the vehicle owner, the vehicle causing the accident, the loading situation, the overturned vehicle on the bridge deck, and so on. In addition, compulsory measures were taken in accordance with the law against the driver causing the accident, the owner of the vehicle, the legal representative of the transport enterprise, as well as the main responsible persons and managers of the cargo loading terminal. Upon completion of the investigation, the results of the investigation will be announced to the public in a timely manner.
[the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved that the subsidy for the promotion of new energy vehicles in 2017 should be 22 billion yuan] the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China announced the results of the liquidation and examination of the subsidy funds for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2017. The number of promotions approved by the Group of experts is 207409 new energy vehicles, and the amount of subsidy to be liquidated is about 22 billion yuan.
[notice on strengthening the normative Management of Electric bicycles "issued by Fuzhou on October 9, the Fuzhou Municipal Government issued the decision of the Fuzhou Municipal people's Government on amendments. On the same day, six units, including Fuzhou Public Security Bureau and Fuzhou Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, jointly issued a circular on strengthening the normative management of electric bicycles. The decision and the circular mentioned that starting from 2020, all electric bicycles will be reissued with license plates, of which blue license plates will not be allowed to pass in the urban areas, while yellow license plate vehicles will not be allowed to pass in the urban areas for a period of four years. During the transitional period, it will be up to the municipal government to decide whether to continue or not. If not, the owner of the yellow license plate vehicle may choose to scrap or change to the blue license plate.
[Taizhou City concentrated on the special renovation of electric tricycles] from October 9 to the end of the year, the special regulation of electric (including fuel) tricycles will be carried out throughout Taizhou. Take the initiative to dock with the market supervision and management departments, strictly investigate the source of illegal sales of electric (including fuel) tricycles, and prevent the flow of electric (including fuel) tricycles produced without the permission of the state product authorities to the road surface. Seizure of electric (including fuel) tricycles purchased after August 2019, inform the market supervision and management department, and assist in the investigation.
[Tesla has delivered 255200 electric vehicles this year than for the whole of last year] Tesla delivered 63000, 95200 and 97000 electric vehicles to consumers in the first three quarters of this year, respectively, according to a filing filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A total of 255200 electric vehicles were delivered in the three quarters. Tesla delivered more electric vehicles in the first three quarters of this year than in the same period last year, but also for the whole of 2018. In the first three quarters of last year, Tesla delivered 154200 electric vehicles, compared with 244900 for the whole of 2018.
[great Wall Automobile and Hebei Mobile reached driverless demonstration Zone Cooperation] during the 2019 China International Digital economy Expo, Great Wall Automobile announced the formal signing of the "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on promoting driverless demonstration Zone" with China Mobile Hebei Company. According to the agreement, Great Wall Automobile will use China Mobile 5G communication technology to build vehicle-road collaborative technology system, jointly build vehicle-road collaborative intelligent automatic driving hierarchical decision-making platform, and promote the commercial process and application of 5G communication technology in self-driving vehicles.
[the starting price of 13 new sites in Nanjing is more than 6.5 billion] on October 12, the Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources listed 13 new operational sites, with a total land area of about 372300 square meters and a total starting price of about 6.548 billion yuan.
Huawei sent Hongmeng mobile phone on the 17th? Following the Mate 30 series, Huawei phones will launch a more innovative full-screen phone on Oct. 17, with the possibility of a Hongmeng system. Reporters learned from Huawei insiders that the news was not true. "the statements about Hongmeng are all speculation." The person told reporters that building the HMS ecology is a top priority for Huawei, and Hongmeng will not be used in mobile phone products this year. Huawei officials did not respond to the news.
Nigeria has signed a $3.9 billion public-private partnership agreement with China Railway Construction Corporation to build the Abuja-Itakepe railway and Port Wali, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Under the agreement, the Nigerian government will contribute 15%, China Railway Construction 10%, and the remaining 75% will be financed from Chinese banks. China Railway Construction will be responsible for the construction and operation of railways and seaports, the recovery of funds and the repayment of debts, and will hand over the project to Nigeria in 30 years' time.
Handan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. plans to start construction of a new 3200m3 blast furnace with a capacity of 2.67 million tons, a 3700m3 blast furnace with a capacity of 2.89 million tons, a 250t converter with a capacity of 2.4 million tons, and two 100t converters with a capacity of 2.3 million tons. 1 blast furnace with a production capacity of 1 million tons; 2 blast furnaces with a production capacity of 3.4 million tons; 1 blast furnace with a capacity of 2.67 million tons; 4 converters with a production capacity of 4.6 million tons; and 1 converter with a production capacity of 1.35 million tons, with a total ironmaking capacity of 7.07 million tons and 5.875 million tons of steelmaking.
According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the euro's bearish willingness warmed up as of October 2 to October 8, while crude oil bullish willingness cooled, crude oil speculative net long reduced by 34234 to 355085 contracts, indicating investors' willingness to be bullish on crude oil.
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