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[SMM Hot Coil] Environmental protection limit has come to an end-the reduction of steel mills may not be as expected!
Oct 8,2019 17:59CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the eve of National Day, production restrictions in various regions are full of news, and the steel mills feedback stop the implementation of production restrictions is indeed strict. However, with the lifting of the early warning of air pollution after this section, the specific geometry of the production situation of steel mills, SMM has carried out in-depth tracking. According to the feedback of steel plant research, most of the steel mills affected by environmental protection and production restrictions basically began to resume normal production one after another on October 3-4, and as of today, it is close to full production. At the same time, according to the reduction of steel mills calculated by SMM, the impact of this production limit on the actual production of hot rolling is lower than market expectations, coupled with the allocation to various markets throughout the country, so it is expected that the reduction of production limit has little impact on the relief of supply pressure. In addition, under the influence of the time difference, this part of the reduction may not be reflected in each market until the middle and late October, so it has no great impact on the recent market supply. Coupled with the current rough statistics, the arrival of goods in each mainstream market has increased to varying degrees. Therefore, under the condition that there is no obvious fluctuation in post-festival demand, hot rolling inventory will accumulate in the past one to two weeks, and the fundamentals of hot rolling will be weaker than that before the festival. The specific steel plant investigation feedback is as follows: a steel plant: No. 4 is ready to resume production one after another, No. 6 basically resumes full production, the influence volume during the shutdown period is about 40, 000 tons, and there is no pressure at present; B steel plant: at present, only 1350 and 680BF are still in preparation for resumption of production, the rest of the equipment has basically resumed production, the influence amount during the production limit period is 10, 000 tons / day, and there is no pressure on the factory warehouse. C steel plant: during the production limit period, it only affects 20, 000 to 30, 000 tons of hot metal, and has little effect on the overall steel output. At present, the steel plant is in full production and the warehouse is normal.

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