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[SMM Review] Review and Post-Festival Forecast of Holiday Market in Aluminum City
Oct 7,2019 15:49CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM News:

Us manufacturing, services and non-farm payrolls and other economic data were released this week (September 30-October 4), much weaker than expected, and given the uncertainty of trade policy, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates at least once this year. As of October 4, the dollar index gave up almost all of its pre-holiday gains and fell below 99.

Lun aluminum, due to the high fall of the United States finger, Lun aluminum within the week first suppressed and then rose, the center of gravity appeared to move down obviously. At the beginning of Zhou, Lunlun aluminum fell below $1740 / tonne support, diving below the $1700 / tonne integer level, the lowest level since January 2017. After that, due to the continuous decline of the US index, Lun Aluminum slightly repaired the week's decline, closing at $1726 / ton, near the 5-day moving average.

On the domestic side, on September 30, the position of Shanghai Aluminum 1912 contract has increased to 189964 hands, surpassing the previous main force 1911 contract. Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is still short to leave the market, Shanghai aluminum to repair the day before the decline, closed at 14015 yuan / ton, still below all daily averages. Eleven domestic fundamentals are facing a transformation, from the third quarter "gold, nine, silver and ten" demand recovery expectations gradually to high profits to increase production, supply pressure to increase expected conversion, Shanghai aluminum center of gravity down significantly. But at the same time, domestic consumption in September is still in line with expectations, go to the warehouse relatively smoothly, and due to the downstream replenishment factors before National Day, social aluminum ingot inventory continued to fall to 939000 tons, taking into account the increase in overseas risk factors for the National Day holiday, part of the short profit left the market.

It is expected that after the festival, Lun aluminum, although there is a decline in the United States index is still high above 98, Lun aluminum upward force is still relatively limited, is expected to concussion will run below the 10-day moving average. On the domestic side, affected by the decline of Lun aluminum, 14000 yuan / ton integer level will be gradually transformed into resistance level. At the same time, due to the downstream replenishment demand, the social aluminum ingot inventory in the first week after the festival will continue to decline, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will first suppress and then rise, the center of gravity will continue to move down, the main operating range is between 13800 yuan / ton. We still need to focus on the continuity of downstream consumption recovery and the rate of capacity release.

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