Summary of the lead morning meeting:
Macro:
It is reported that the European Central Bank has decided to keep interest rates unchanged and is expected to remain at the current "or lower" level until at least the end of June 2020, opening up room for a possible interest rate cut in September. However, Draghi did not send a clear signal of easing at a press conference to push for a rebound in the euro.
The risk of Brexit without an agreement has risen. Prime Minister Johnson said the current version of the Brexit deal could not be passed by parliament and must abandon the Irish backup plan, a request rejected by the European Union.
Overnight US economic data: business equipment orders grew at their fastest pace since early 2018 in June; merchandise trade deficit narrowed less than expected in June; initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10, 000 to 206000 last week
Us GDP data for the second quarter will be released today, which is expected to slow to its slowest pace since Trump's presidency, dragged down by a trade war.
Pay close attention next week: the 12th round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States will be held in Shanghai from July 30 to 31, as well as the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
Fundamentals:
Shanghai lead continued to rise, the holder quoted price, among them, Shanghai market Shuangyan lead to 1909 contract discount 20 yuan / ton, Jinsha lead to 1909 contract water 30 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, Minshan, copper crown lead to 1908 contract discount 70 to 30 yuan / ton, at the same time electrolytic lead refinery goods to SMM1# electrolytic lead discount 100 to 50 yuan / ton; Recycled lead, reduced lead market supply is still no signs of easing, renewable refined lead to maintain deep discount quotation, tax renewable refined lead mainstream transaction price expanded to the average price of SMM1# lead discount 200 to 300 yuan / ton factory; and downstream fear high wait-and-see, inquiry is lower than yesterday, and because of price advantage, downstream is still biased to refinery supply, bulk single market trading two light;
In addition, as of yesterday, LME lead stocks fell to a new low of 56100 tons in nearly a decade. This week, LME lead stocks totaled more than 5, 000 tons, and LME lead premium back structure expanded to 10.5, followed by continuous attention to LME lead premium structure and inventory changes.
Lead price:
Recently, the amount of lead position continues to rise, and the characteristics of soft warehouse are gradually reflected. Now we pay attention to the change of LME lead 0-3 liter discount. Shanghai lead closely follows the trend of Shanghai lead, and in the near future, in order to judge the rhythm of Shanghai lead trend, the trend of Shanghai lead is the core logic.
The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 125 yuan per ton today.
