[SMM analysis] the recruitment of domestic and overseas new wheel steel has come to an end, and the electrolytic manganese market is stable and weak.

According to SMM research, from the end of June to the beginning of July 2019, most of the bids for electrolytic manganese and metal manganese products in domestic steel mills have come to an end. From the bidding and pricing of various steel mills in China, it can be seen that the bidding price of electrolytic manganese in July has not changed compared with June, most other steel mills have obvious price reduction phenomenon, electrolytic manganese sheet tax acceptance to the plant or semi-acceptance half-cash pricing in the range of 13850 to 14200 yuan / ton, the majority of other steel mills have obvious price reduction phenomenon, with the exception of Shanxi Taigang and Hegang Group in July, the bidding price of electrolytic manganese and metal manganese products has come to an end in July 2019. The price of manganese ingots with tax acceptance to the plant is about 14180 to 14500 yuan / ton, (among them, the bidding price of manganese ingots for metal manganese ingots is fixed at 15000 yuan / ton), and the price of manganese ball with tax acceptance is about 13950 to 14090 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the bidding price in July is 100 to 230 yuan / ton lower than that in June.

In early July, the tender price for electrolytic manganese in Posco, South Korea, was announced in August. The tender price for CIF Korea's main port in August was US $9-18 / tonnage lower than that in July. The total tender amount was 3990 tons, and the month-on-month quantity was 95 tons less than in July. Among them, the specific understanding was that 1045 tons of Busan (Busan) decreased by 855 tons compared with July) 2945 tons increased by 760T compared with July, and the delivery time was before August 10, 2019. According to the current exchange rate of 1 US dollar = 6.8881 RMB, excluding sea freight and port freight, the ex-factory price of electrolytic manganese can be converted to 12805 to 12900 yuan / ton. This time, the spot trading price of electrolytic manganese in Posco in South Korea in August tends to be 12900 yuan / ton, and the focus of trading is gradually lower than in July. Although some operators believe that the overseas bidding price of Posco in South Korea fell within expectations, but there is a further warming up for the weak sentiment in the future.

At present, the factory quotation of electrolytic manganese retail spot including tax in the mainstream area of the manganese triangle revolves around 13100 yuan / ton, which is 50 to 100 yuan / ton lower than that in June. It has also been heard that the futures transaction price in the mainstream area is about 12800 yuan / ton. Guangxi quoted price in 13200 to 13300 yuan / ton, there is a large northern factory in Guangxi to continue to receive goods and obvious willingness to push the price, compared with June in Guangxi, the overall price in Guangxi has no obvious fluctuation.

Comprehensive analysis, the previous domestic electrolytic manganese market has been stable for nearly a month and a half, in early July appeared a small decline, the industry once said that into the summer, downstream 200 series stainless steel may have maintenance, demand-side inventory, will correspondingly reduce procurement, market prices fell slightly is also in line with the market. Since the end of June, a manganese plant in Sichuan has stopped production and maintenance, and the initial expected shutdown time is one month, but the subsequent specific date of resumption of production is still uncertain, and whether the large northern plant will continue to receive goods in the southern region in the later period remains to be seen the actual transaction situation in the market, but some operators say that according to the current receiving statistics, the northern large factory receives about 1400 tons of goods per week. Therefore, it is necessary to judge the short-term price of electrolytic manganese or continue to operate weakly and stably, but the price trend in the later stage still needs to wait and see the specific changes of supply and demand in the market.