SMM monthly production data of basic metals in China is scheduled to be released around the 8th of each month. The purpose of this data is to explore the real fundamental situation from the essence, and to set aside the illusion of the capital market for industrial chain people and investors. More clearly grasp the future trend of the non-ferrous market.
In January 2019, the national natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 12100 tons, an increase of 1.44 per cent over the same period last year. The national electrolytic nickel production in January was 32.05% lower than that in December, mainly due to the fact that in December, electrolytic nickel producers increased their production efforts and rushed sales at the end of the year to meet the full-year production plan, while in January, in addition to selling inventory in December, Production fell sharply from December, taking into account the Spring Festival holiday and the traditional off-season of consumption. According to a preliminary investigation by SMM, the production of electrolytic nickel increased by about 10 per cent to 13300 tons in February compared with January. In February, the output of a certain group increased slightly, and the group's output in January was lower than its average monthly output. January consumed finished product inventories after overproduction in December and production recovered in February.
In January, the national nickel pig iron rose 2.68 per cent to 42600 nickel tons, an increase of 15.33 per cent from the same period last year. In terms of taste, the production of high nickel pig iron increased by 2.9 per cent to 39200 nickel tons in January compared with December. On the one hand, the new production capacity of a large nickel pig iron plant in Shandong has been produced one after another, and the output has increased. On the other hand, although there are factory overhauls in South and North China in January, there are also factory overhauls in East China, South China and North China in January, and the output recovers, superimposed on the resumption of production in a certain factory in the north. Low nickel pig iron production was flat in January and 3400 nickel tons in December.
In February, national nickel pig iron production is expected to increase by 1.36 per cent to 43100 nickel tons and high nickel pig iron production by 1.47 per cent to 39800 nickel tons. Mainly due to the increment of a large nickel pig iron plant in Shandong, the output of low nickel pig iron is 3400 nickel tons compared with January.
In January, China produced 9504 tons of nickel sulfate and 43200 tons in kind. In January, the yield increased by 2.61% compared with the previous month, and the increment was mainly contributed by the amount of nickel sulfate produced by the integration of the precursor. There was still a certain profit in the production of nickel sulfate due to the dissolution of nickel bean / powder, and the yield of the ternary precursor was still in the rising channel at the end of the year. The precursor plant adopts autolysis to produce nickel sulfate liquid as the mainstream mode. In January, the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, while the downstream ternary precursor factory actively prepares goods for the Spring Festival holiday, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate market still maintains a tight balance. At the end of December last year, Jinchuan Group added 35000 physical tons of nickel salt production capacity, including 25000 tons of nickel chloride and 10, 000 tons of nickel sulfate. The capacity structure is the same as that of Jinke, which is about to move out of Kunshan due to the impact of environmental protection, and its purpose is to produce immediately after the shutdown of Jinke nonferrous production capacity, so as to realize the seamless docking of output. In February, the national nickel sulfate production dropped by 8.45% from the previous month, mainly due to the holiday and maintenance of some factories during the Spring Festival.
Refined tin production in January was 12443 tons, up 3.5 per cent from December 2018. The main reason for the recovery of production in January was that Yunxi resumed production in an all-round way, and the output increased greatly compared with December. However, Huaxi's output in January was lower, offsetting the increment of Yunxi's contribution to the resumption of production, while other production enterprises reduced production to varying degrees due to the early Spring Festival holiday, while some enterprises maintained production during the Spring Festival and adjusted their output according to their own raw materials. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the output of some enterprises that stop production and holiday is expected to fall further from January, and tin ingot production is expected to fall to about 12000 tons in February.
Production of metal products in January 2019
1. The value with * is the modified value, and the value of italics is the predicted value.
2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.
1) Research methods