Macro Roundup (Apr 17)

SHANGHAI, Apr 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals, except for copper, traded lower on Tuesday. Zinc saw the biggest loss of over 3%, lead tumbled 1.2%, nickel, tin and aluminium fell 0.5%.

SHFE base metals did not perform better overnight. Zinc dropped 2.1%, nickel lost 0.4%, tin fell 0.3%, lead slipped 0.2% and copper dipped 0.02% while aluminium gained 0.5%.

The US dollar index extended its gains above 97 on Tuesday as the euro weakened after reports that some European Central Bank policymakers deemed economic projections by banks to be overly optimistic.

German research institute ZEW said on Tuesday that its economic sentiment index for the country improved to 3.1 in April, up from -3.6 in March, and better than an expected reading of 0.8.

"The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development," said ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

ZEW also reported a rebound in economic sentiment across the euroarea in April, with the corresponding indicator rising 7 points to a current 4.5.

US manufacturing output remained unchanged in March after two straight monthly declines, leading to the largest quarterly decrease in production since 2017.

Production at factories dropped at a 1.1% annualised rate in the first quarter. That was the first quarterly drop since the third quarter of 2017.

Manufacturing is slowing as stimulus to capital spending from last year’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package diminishes. It is also impeded by a trade war between the US and China as well as by last year’s surge in the dollar and weakening global economic growth.

US crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week, by 3.1 million barrels, compared to an expected build of 1.7 million barrels, according to data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute.

Gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.6 million barrels, the API said, exceeding forecasts of a 2.1 million-barrel drop.

Day ahead

China will release its gross domestic product (GDP) data, industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment numbers.

The eurozone’s trade balance as well as the US’ trade balance, wholesale inventories and weekly crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are also slated for release.