Macro Roundup (Sep 3)

SHANGHAI, Sep 3 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar bounced off two-year lows on Wednesday as US data pointed to a firm manufacturing activity. Economic data published on Tuesday showed US manufacturing activity accelerated to a nearly two-year high in August amid a surge in new orders, with the reading from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at its highest level since November 2018.

Oil fell more than 2% on Wednesday, reversing course as gasoline demand fell in the United States in the latest week, an indication that economic recovery from the pandemic may be slower than expected.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels in the last week to 498.4 million barrels, marking a sixth weekly decline in a row. Total US crude production also dropped by 1.1 million barrels last week to stand at 9.7 million barrels a day. The drop coincides with the output shut related to Hurricane Laura, which touched down on the US Gulf Coast early on Aug. 27.

Gold fell more than 1.5% on Wednesday as the dollar firmed and a strong rebound in US manufacturing sector fuelled hopes of a rapid recovery in the coronavirus-hit economy.

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1.5% to end its trading day at 3,580.84 while the Nasdaq Composite closed 1% higher at 12,056.44. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, with the Nasdaq topping 12,000 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw its first close above 29,000 since February as it advanced 454.84 points, or 1.6%, to close at 29,100.50.

On the SHFE, nonferrous metals, except for nickel and tin, closed lower in overnight trading. Copper weakened 0.59%, aluminium fell 0.93%, zinc slipped 0.69% and lead declined 0.82%, while nickel added 0.31% and tin rose 0.8%.

The LME complex traded mixed on Wednesday. Nickel rose 1.09%, tin advanced 1.05% and copper edged up 0.07%, while lead shed 1.97%, aluminium fell 1.54% and zinc declined 1.2%.

Economic data front

German retail sales figures fell unexpectedly in July, by 0.9%, according to calendar-adjusted data from the Federal Statistics Office. That missed expectations for a 0.5% increase.

US private payroll growth came in well below expectations for August, according to a report Wednesday from ADP, whose job tallies have differed widely from the government’s during the coronavirus pandemic. Companies added 428,000 jobs during the month, well below the 1.17 million estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones though a leap above the lackluster 212,000 that ADP measured for July.

New orders for US-made goods increased more than expected in July as the manufacturing sector continues to steadily recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Commerce Department said on Thursday factory orders rose 6.4% after a similar gain in June.

Here’s a look at what’s on tap:

China: Caixin services Purchasing Managers’ Index

Europe: July retail sales figures in eurozone

US: Trade balance for July, initial and continuing claims for jobless benefits, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August