North China NPI plant suspends output for one month

"Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries**

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

As of last Friday, the average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax), down 3.2 yuan/mtu WoW. Supply side, even though the approved nickel ore quota is increasing, it still takes time for the nickel ore to move from the mine to the smelter. As a result, the current operating rate of NPI producers remains low. Stainless steel and stainless steel scrap prices kept dropping. High-grade NPI is still more cost efficient than stainless steel scrap. The terminal need for stainless steel stayed low, failing to boost the high-grade NPI prices. As a result, it causes a build-up in inventory and is expected to keep NPI prices low.

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused many worries in the financial market. With the further aggravation of the situation, both domestic and foreign nickel prices have risen sharply, among which SHFE nickel prices have once again been set a record high.

China imported 4.01 million mt of nickel ore and its concentrate in November, a decrease of 10% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 12%, According to General Administration of Customs.

China’s NPI output rose 3.27% from December to 38,600 mt Ni in January. This included 31,600 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, up 5.74% on the month, and 7,000 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 6.58% month on month.

SMM high-grade NPI average price on December 4 was 1,030 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 10 yuan/mtu on the week. The purchase prices of high-grade NPI moved between 1,020-1,045 yuan/mtu (delivered to factory, tax included).  The willingness of restocking across steel plants have weakened along with the low stainless steel prices, which had dropped below the costs in all domestic ferronickel plants. This has led to lower transactions amid the ferronickel plants’ low intention of delivery.

China’s NPI output shrank 2.2% from October to 42,700 mt Ni in November.

Jinye Group has taken over Yunnan Yongchang Iron and Steel, which is expected to resume production in May.

The steelmaker has pig iron capacity of 1.3 million mt on an annualised basis