Macro Roundup (May 14)

SHANGHAI, May 14 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar index fell after rising to a four-month high last week, gaining 0.01% week on week to stand at 92.84 last Friday due to a moderate US consumer price index (CPI).

Base metals mostly strengthened last Friday as a result. Both LME and SHFE copper went up slightly. LME lead jumped over 2%, nickel gained over 1%, and tin rose nearly 1%. SHFE lead went up over 1% while nickel was up nearly 1%. However, LME aluminium dipped nearly 1.6% to a week’s low, and its SHFE counterpart also edged down. 

China’s social financing registered 1.56 trillion yuan in April, higher than the expected 1.35 trillion yuan, indicating a more flexible monetary policy from the central bank. March’s social financing figure was revised to 1.33 trillion yuan.

New loans in April rose to 1.18 trillion yuan, from 1.12 trillion yuan in March. This was higher from the expected 1.1 trillion yuan. China's M2 money supply went up 8.3% year on year last month, lower from the expected 8.5%, but up from March’s 8.2%. The generally positive financial data in April suggested a relatively robust momentum of economic growth in China.

The US import price index in April rose 0.3% from a month ago, lower than the expected 0.5%, but higher from March’s -0.2% after revision. The year-on-year growth stood at 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.9%, and flat from the previous month. The figures failed to meet the expectation as the increases in oil prices were offset by the declining food prices. The price of imported oil went up 1.6% in April, while that of imported food registered a second consecutive month of decline of 0.4% last month. 

The US export price index in April gained 0.6% month on month, higher than the expected 0.4% and 0.3% in March. The figure saw a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, up from March’s 3.4%. However, export prices of agricultural products dipped 1.2%, the first decline since December last year. This was mainly due to the drops in prices of soybeans, nuts, and wheat.

The preliminary figure of University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index stood at 98.8 for May, unchanged from the final value in April, and higher than the expected 98.3. While 16% of the consumers maintained a positive attitude to the tax reform, 16% of them showed concerns over the China-US trade conflicts.

The number of active US oil rigs registered a sixth consecutive week's of increase by 10 to 844 units, and natural gas rigs rose 3 to 199 units for the week ended Friday May 11. This brought the total rigs up 13 to 1045 units for the week. 

Day ahead

Key things to watch today include the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the speech by Loretta Mester, president and ceo of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 

The US dollar is likely to hover at highs while base metals are expected to maintain the rangebound trend amid mixed trading today. 

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