Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2016-9-19)

SHANGHAI, Sept. 19 (SMM) – Eyes will be on September manufacturing PMI from each country and US Fed September rate meeting this week.

Global major economies already reached consensus on not relying on monetary stimulus to avoid negative effect from the monetary policies, which came before US Fed September rate meeting. US Fed’s normalization of interest rate cannot just be limited to recovery in employment and control of inflation. A rate hike by US Fed may not tighten liquidity in the US while short-term withdrawal of cash from global market will likely allow each country’s economic outlook to diverge.  

US dollar index once fell below 95 following the release of US August non-farm payroll report. But the index returned above 96 due to US improved inflation in August. US Fed announced its first rate hike at the end of 2015 and US dollar index already entered upward track. US Fed is moving towards its rate hike cycle, which is believed to be important for investors. As such, it does not matter whether the second rate hike by US Fed is 9 or 12 months later.  

Focus will be also on rate decision by the BoE, ECB, BoJ, New Zealand Fed and South Africa's central bank.

Most economic figures from China were upbeat in August. The divergence between M1 and M2 weakened slightly in August but cash market still reported tightness. New RMB loans doubled from July but medium and long term household loans and note financing accounted for 80%, which Intensifies contradictions between liquidity and loans by real economy. Both short and medium and long term loans post declines while note financing expands, which may raise hope for monetary tightening by banks.