Domestic NPI prices likely to rise on fewer Indonesia exports

NICKEL ORE Indonesian Ore Supply Tightness Continues, Costs and Sentiment May Both Strengthen Under Policy Influence High-Grade NPI High-Grade NPI Cost Support Strengthens, Prices Relatively Stable with Strong Trend

Nickel Ore Indonesian Domestic Trade Laterite Nickel Ore Transactions Were Active This Week, Prices Fluctuated Upward High-Grade NPI Market Resources Tighten Ahead of Chinese New Year, Post-Holiday Prices Expected to Remain Stable  

"Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries**

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

As of last Friday, the average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax), down 3.2 yuan/mtu WoW. Supply side, even though the approved nickel ore quota is increasing, it still takes time for the nickel ore to move from the mine to the smelter. As a result, the current operating rate of NPI producers remains low. Stainless steel and stainless steel scrap prices kept dropping. High-grade NPI is still more cost efficient than stainless steel scrap. The terminal need for stainless steel stayed low, failing to boost the high-grade NPI prices. As a result, it causes a build-up in inventory and is expected to keep NPI prices low.

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused many worries in the financial market. With the further aggravation of the situation, both domestic and foreign nickel prices have risen sharply, among which SHFE nickel prices have once again been set a record high.

China imported 4.01 million mt of nickel ore and its concentrate in November, a decrease of 10% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 12%, According to General Administration of Customs.

The average price of Ni 1.5% Philippine laterite nickel ore stood at $82/wmt last week, flat on the week.

This is a roundup of news in the steel industry for last week.

The average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 1,390 yuan/mtu (ex-factory including tax) as of August 20