SMM Morning Comments (Jan 19)

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 19, 2018 09:34
SMM Morning Comments (Jan 19)

SHANGHAI, Jan 19 (SMM)๏ผ

Copper: Copper is expected to remain rangebound today. LME copper is to trade at $7,020-7,120/mt while SHFE 1803 is to trade at 53,190-54,050 yuan/mt. Spot discounts are expected at 130-80 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: We see LME aluminium trading at $2,220-2,250/mt while SHFE aluminium is likely to follow LME tendency at 14,600-14,800 yuan/mt today. We see spot discounts at 210-170 yuan/mt.

Nickel: With weak downstream consumption, LME nickel is expected to trade in a weak tendency while SHFE 1805 is to trade at 96,000-97,700 yuan/mt. Spot prices are expected at 95,700-97,400 yuan/mt.

Tin: LME tin sees resistance at $20,500/mt, which is expected to trade rangebound with below support at $20,000/mt while SHFE tin is to trade at 143,500-144,500 yuan/mt with support at 143,600 yuan/mt. We see spot prices at 142,500-144,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: SHFE lead traded above all moving averages and is expected to trade rangebound in the short term.

Zinc: LME zinc is expected to trade at $3,350-3,400/mt while SHFE zinc is to trade at 25,650-26,100 yuan/mt with struggle between bears and bulls.


For editorial queries, please contact Daisy Tseng at daisy@smm.cn 
For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn 


 

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฌธ์ œ ์† ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ๊ณผ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฌธ์ œ ์† ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ๊ณผ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฌธ์ œ ์† ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ๊ณผ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฌธ์ œ ์† ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ๊ณผ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜
7์›” 20์ผ~23์ผ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์š”์ธ ์•„๋ž˜์—์„œ ์›€์ง์˜€๋‹ค. ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Œ๊ทน ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„, ์—ญ๋ฐœํ–‰ ์†ก์žฅ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๊ทœ์ œ ์ค€์ˆ˜ ์ œํ•œ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜๋Š” ๊ณ ์˜จ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์˜€๋‹ค. SHFE ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 11์‹œ 30๋ถ„ ์ข…๊ฐ€๋Š” 104,180์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์—์„œ 106,340์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€, ์ฃผ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์†Œํญ ํ›„ํ‡ดํ•œ 106,170์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๋งˆ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™๊ณผ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฐจ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€; ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก ํ˜„๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ถœํ•˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ฐจ์ต ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฃผ๋„ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™๊ณผ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฐจ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€; ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก ํ˜„๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ถœํ•˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ฐจ์ต ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฃผ๋„ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™๊ณผ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฐจ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€; ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก ํ˜„๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ถœํ•˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ฐจ์ต ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฃผ๋„ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™๊ณผ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ฐจ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€; ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก ํ˜„๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ถœํ•˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ฐจ์ต ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฃผ๋„ [SMM ๋ถ„์„]
[SMM ๋ถ„์„: ์น˜์†Ÿ๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ, ์ „๊ธฐ๋™-๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ฐจ ํ™•๋Œ€; ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—…์ฒด ํ˜„๋ฌผ ์ถœํ•˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ์ฐจ์ต ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋งค์ž…์ด ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฃผ๋„] ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ(7/20~7/23) ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ๋†’์€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„, ์—ญ๋ฐœํ–‰ ์ฒญ๊ตฌ์„œ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๊ทœ์ œ ์ค€์ˆ˜ ์ œ์•ฝ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜๋Š” ๊ณ ์˜จ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ๋ผ๋Š” ์‚ผ์ค‘ ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์†์—์„œ ์›€์ง์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. SHFE ๋™ 11์‹œ 30๋ถ„ ์ข…๊ฐ€๋Š” 104,180์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์—์„œ 106,340์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ•œ ํ›„, ์ฃผ ํ›„๋ฐ˜ 106,170์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์Šนํญ์ด 2,000์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์„ ๋„˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๊ธฐ๋™ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์˜ ์ผ๋ฐฉ์  ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ์˜ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด, ์ „๊ธฐ๋™-๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” 3,218์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์—์„œ 4,545์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ฃผ์ค‘์—๋Š” ์ผ์‹œ์ ์œผ๋กœ 4,800์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค๊นŒ์ง€ ์น˜์†Ÿ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ๊ณ ์œ ์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์œ ์ง€ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ํŠน์ง•์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์—์–ด์ปจ, 2027๋…„ ์ „ํ†ต์  ๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ ์‹œ์ฆŒ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ ๋Œ€์‹  ์†Œ๋งค ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ „๋žต ์ฑ„ํƒ
2026๋…„ 7์›” 25์ผ 21:39
๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์—์–ด์ปจ, 2027๋…„ ์ „ํ†ต์  ๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ ์‹œ์ฆŒ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ ๋Œ€์‹  ์†Œ๋งค ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ „๋žต ์ฑ„ํƒ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์—์–ด์ปจ, 2027๋…„ ์ „ํ†ต์  ๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ ์‹œ์ฆŒ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ ๋Œ€์‹  ์†Œ๋งค ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ „๋žต ์ฑ„ํƒ
๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์—์–ด์ปจ, 2027๋…„ ์ „ํ†ต์  ๋ƒ‰๋ฐฉ ์‹œ์ฆŒ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ ๋Œ€์‹  ์†Œ๋งค ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ „๋žต ์ฑ„ํƒ
์ž‰์ปคํ‰์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ๋ฉ”์ด๋”” ์—์–ด์ปจ์€ 2026๋…„ 7์›” 2027๋…„ ์‹ ๊ทœ ๋ƒ‰๋…„์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๋ƒ‰๋…„ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰์„ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ€์‹  โ€˜๋ฆฌํ…Œ์ผ์—์„œ ์Šน๋ถ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ตœ์ข… ์†Œ๋น„์ž ์Ÿํƒˆ์— ์ฃผ๋ ฅํ•˜๋Š”โ€™ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ „๋žต์— ์ „๋…ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ์—์–ด์ปจ ์—…๊ณ„์—์„œ 30๋…„ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ์ด์–ด์ ธ ์˜จ โ€˜๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๋Œ€๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ›๊ณ , ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ซ“๋Š”โ€™ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ์ผ์‹œ ์ค‘๋‹จ๋จ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. โ€˜๋ƒ‰๋…„ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰โ€™์€ ์—์–ด์ปจ ์—…๊ณ„ ํŠน์œ ์˜ ๋น„์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ์Šค ๋ฆฌ๋“ฌ์ด๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ(7~8์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 10~11์›”๊นŒ์ง€) ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์ •์ฑ… ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์œ ํ†ต์ƒ์˜ ์„ ์ž…๊ธˆ๊ณผ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ™•์ถฉ์„ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐจ๋ก€๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ดํ›„ ์ด๋“ฌํ•ด ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๊ฐ์ข… ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ํŒ์ด‰ ํ–‰์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ง‘์ค‘ ์ถœํ•˜ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ โ€˜๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์— ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ€์–ด ๋„ฃ๊ณ , ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์— ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ซ“๋Š”โ€™ ์‚ฌ์ดํด์„ ํ˜•์„ฑํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฉ”์ด๋”” ์—์–ด์ปจ์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ƒ‰๋…„ ๊ฐœ๋ง‰์„ ์ทจ์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ์กฐ์น˜๋กœ๋Š”, ์œ ํ†ต์ƒ์˜ ์ง‘์ค‘์ ์ธ ์„ ์ž…๊ธˆ, ์ •์ฑ… ํ™•์ • ๋ฐ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ™•๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜๋ฐ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ ํšŒ์˜๋ฅผ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๊ฐœ์ตœํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ, โ€˜์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ •์ฑ… ํ™•์ •์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์˜๋ฌด์  ์„ ์ž…๊ธˆโ€™ ๊ด€ํ–‰์„ ํ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์‹ค์ œ ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ํ•œ ๋ง๋‹จ ์œ ํ†ต๋ง ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋ณด์ถฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์—ฐ์ค‘ ์ƒ์‹œ ์ •์ƒํ™”๋œ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ์‹œํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค.
2026๋…„ 7์›” 25์ผ 21:39
SMM Morning Comments (Jan 19) - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)