SMM Aluminum Price Outlook for Q3 and Q4 2017

Published: Jul 21, 2017 19:16

Save

SHFE aluminum got a big boost recently from closures of illegal aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and Shandong, as well as weaker dollar, positive Chinese economic data and gains in other metals.

SHANGHAI, Jul. 21 (SMM) – SHFE aluminum got a big boost recently from closures of illegal aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and Shandong, as well as weaker dollar, positive Chinese economic data and gains in other metals. How will the light metal perform for the rest of the year?

SMM Analysis: China Alumina Supply & Demand Balance in H2 2017

Given release of legal new capacity and poor demand in the off-season, SMM sees the most active SHFE aluminum moving in a wide range of 13,800-14,800 yuan/tonne in July and August.

In Q4, eyes will be on production control during winter heating season. If 30% of aluminum capacity, which SMM sees a good chance to include illegal capacity required to close, and alumina and prebaked anode capacity are slashed as required in “2+26” cities during winter heating season, aluminum prices will see another round of gains in Q4, SMM expects.

Chalco Posts Best Performance in 9 Years in H1 and Aims to Be Global Top Aluminum Semis Producer in 2017

The “2+26” cities refer to key regions for environmental protection, namely Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 smaller cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and nearby areas.

For news cooperation, please contact us by email: sallyzhang@smm.cn or service.en@smm.cn.

SHFE aluminum prices aluminum prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

16 hours ago

Fed Governor Milan Pushes for Over 100 Basis Points Cut, Contradicts Barkin on Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Milan pointed out that it is necessary for the US Fed to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. At the same time, he is very much looking forward to the performance of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy must remain cautious until inflation fully pulls back to the target level, thereby ensuring the stability of the labour market.

16 hours ago

Democratic Senators Demand Delay in Fed Nomination Amid Criminal Investigation

All 11 Democratic members of the US Senate Banking Committee jointly sent a letter to the committee's chairman, Tim Scott, requesting that all nomination processes for the prospective Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, be postponed until the criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Powell and other board members is concluded. However, Scott stated that Warsh's confirmation was a done deal.

16 hours ago

Fed to Keep Large Banks' Capital Levels Unchanged, Postpones Stress Test Reforms Until 2027

The US Fed has announced that it will maintain the capital levels of large banks unchanged during the upcoming stress test cycle (corresponding to the 2026 cycle). At the same time, the US Fed is planning multidimensional reforms to this annual test, aiming to enhance its transparency. The US Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, revealed that adjustments to the stress capital buffer requirements for large banks will be postponed until 2027. This move is intended to provide the US Fed with sufficient time to evaluate potential flaws that may be exposed in its testing models when assessing banks' financial conditions under simulated economic downturn scenarios.

16 hours ago