SMM Aluminum Price Outlook for Q3 and Q4 2017

Published: Jul 21, 2017 19:16 (GMT+8)

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SHFE aluminum got a big boost recently from closures of illegal aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and Shandong, as well as weaker dollar, positive Chinese economic data and gains in other metals.

SHANGHAI, Jul. 21 (SMM) – SHFE aluminum got a big boost recently from closures of illegal aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and Shandong, as well as weaker dollar, positive Chinese economic data and gains in other metals. How will the light metal perform for the rest of the year?

SMM Analysis: China Alumina Supply & Demand Balance in H2 2017

Given release of legal new capacity and poor demand in the off-season, SMM sees the most active SHFE aluminum moving in a wide range of 13,800-14,800 yuan/tonne in July and August.

In Q4, eyes will be on production control during winter heating season. If 30% of aluminum capacity, which SMM sees a good chance to include illegal capacity required to close, and alumina and prebaked anode capacity are slashed as required in “2+26” cities during winter heating season, aluminum prices will see another round of gains in Q4, SMM expects.

Chalco Posts Best Performance in 9 Years in H1 and Aims to Be Global Top Aluminum Semis Producer in 2017

The “2+26” cities refer to key regions for environmental protection, namely Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 smaller cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and nearby areas.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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