UNITED KINGDOM October 20 2014 12:15 PM
LONDON (Scrap Register): Lead prices are expected to average $2,120 a ton next year and $2,195 per ton in 2016, said Natixis in its Metal Review.
Global demand for lead has remained weak in 2014 due to a second consecutive annual decline in Chinese apparent demand. While other base metal markets with stronger fundamental have seen prices push higher, lead prices have instead remained trapped in a narrow range.
In Natixis central scenario, the lead market is expected to remain in broad balance, helping to keep prices within this tight range. There are, however, significant uncertainties surrounding Natixis outlook for both supply and demand, which could result in unexpected price volatility in the years ahead.
Natixis analysis of supply and demand suggests that the lead market will run a cumulative deficit of perhaps 20,000 tons over the period 2014-16. With this in mind, Natixis forecasts a very modest increase in lead prices over the period 2015-16.