SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Oct. 13-17, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 14 (SMM) – The most active SHFE aluminum contract fell to RMB 13,760/mt last Thursday, drawing no support from China’s official manufacturing PMI for September. The contract followed LME aluminum up above RMB 13,900/mt last Thursday night, but remains under downward pressure. In China’s spot market, sellers rushed to sell due to growing arrivals following the week-long holiday. But downstream buyers showed little purchasing interest, causing spot discounts to widen to RMB 10-40/mt over SHFE 1410 aluminum contract. 

 

Final readings on CPI from major economies are scheduled for release this coming week. The most active SHFE aluminum contract will move between RMB 13,700-13,950/mt. In China’s physical market, downstream demand is expected to pick up slowly, which will help prevent spot discounts from expanding. Spot aluminum should trade at discounts of RMB 0-40/mt over SHFE front-month aluminum contract.