SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jan. 12-16, 2015)

Published: Jan 12, 2015 17:01
SHFE 1503 aluminum contract fell to its lowest since 2014 at RMB 12,755/mt as bearish sentiment gathered steam.
SHANGHAI, Jan. 12 (SMM) –SHFE 1503 aluminum contract fell to its lowest since 2014 at RMB 12,755/mt as bearish sentiment gathered steam. However, the most active contract tracked LME aluminum up later in the week. In China’s spot market, falling prices did not trigger panic sell-off since arrivals were limited after the three-day New Year holiday. Many downstream buyers stayed out of the market, waiting for prices to fall further. 
 
The rise in the most active SHFE aluminum contract was driven mainly by withdrawal of bears rather than entry of bulls. As such, the contract should remain weak between RMB 12,700-12,850/mt this coming week.   
 
In China’s spot market, supply and demand will remain weak. Spot aluminum is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 0-20/mt and premiums of RMB 0-30/mt over SHFE front-month aluminum contract. 
 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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