UNITED KINGDOM October 09 2014 3:15 PM
LONDON (Scrap Register): Copper is expected to average $6,500 a ton during next year while aluminum to average $2,060 a ton, said BNP Paribas.
Except for copper, all of these forecasts are above current prices for three-month metal on the London Metal Exchange.
The French bank’s 2015 average price forecasts for the other base metals are lead at $2,365 a ton; nickel at $22,100a ton; tin at $24,000 a ton and zinc at $2,560 a ton.
Mounting supply constraints and respectable demand growth should provide increasing support for most base metals in 2015.
“The constraints remain greatest among the smaller metals. In particular, the bank says, supply constraints in lead, tin and zinc will become more pressing in 2015,” BNP Paribas added.
Nickel’s outlook remains entirely in the hands of Indonesian policy and still looks positive as things stand, BNP Paribas said, referring to a ban on ore exports.
Aluminum continues to face a large structural surplus, but non-Chinese producers are addressing this and China could start to experience raw material shortages.
In contrast, BNP Paribas still expects firm supply growth to keep the copper price under pressure until deep into 2015.
BNP Paribas maintains its recommendation of a short copper trade versus a basket of other base metals.