SMM Tin Market Daily Review (2014-3-24)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 25 (SMM) – In Shanghai physical tin market, SMM #1 tin ingot traded at RMB 139,000-141,500/mt on Monday. Prices were RMB 141,500/mt for Yunxi brand tin, and RMB 139,000-139,500/mt for Yunxiang and Yunheng brand tin. Supply of goods from Jiangxi was limited.

55% of the market players surveyed by SMM are bearish over tin prices this week. LME tin is expected to lose support at USD 22,800/mt or even USD 22,500/mt due to negative macro economic data. Spot tin prices in Shanghai will follow LME tin down on tepid demand. Smelters are little interested in selling against low prices, so any downside space should be limited, with spot tin prices expected at RMB 138,000/mt.   

The remaining 45% see little change in this week’s tin prices. On the one hand, persistent dry weather will interrupt tin supply in Indonesia, putting a floor under LME tin prices. On the other hand, negative macro economic data and depressed base metals prices will weigh on LME tin prices. Two factors combined will keep LME tin within a narrow band. In Shanghai physical market, smelters have been holding back goods at lows recently, cutting market supply. Anemic demand persists, acting as a brake against any rise in tin prices. As such, spot tin prices in China will also hold largely stable.