SMM Daily Review - 2012/7/9 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 10 (SMM) – In Shanghai tin market, spot tin prices were stable on Monday, but trading remained light. Mainstream traded prices were between RMB 148,000-149,000/mt, and insufficient supply offered certain support to tin prices. The sharp decline in LME tin prices last Friday depressed market confidence. Transactions were mainly made for resources from Yunnan province, such as Yunxi. In the afternoon, brands from Nancang were also traded in the market, with prices between RMB 147,300-147,500/mt. Some traders lowered prices in the afternoon but transactions remained limited.

With respect to market outlook, 60% market players were bearish on spot tin prices this week. Last week, tin prices rallied slightly but market sentiment was dented by the falling LME tin prices at weekend, leaving spot tin prices little up momentum to rise this week. In domestic market, downstream demand remains unimproved, while orders at downstream enterprises show a tendency of further declines. Given the sluggish demand, tin prices are not likely to rally without buying support. Besides, technical indicators also display resistance for tin prices to increases. On the other hand, the economic data released recently remained negative, the European debt crisis, continuing slowdown of US and China’s economy will pose great pressures on base metals. The worse-than-expected non-farm payroll data lowered the possibility of Fed’s QE3 measures, benefiting the US dollar index. Thus, base metals may fall further. In China, economic data was also disappointing, adding to expectations on additional easing policies and indicating the plight confronting the country. As such, a majority of investors believe spot tin prices should fall.

40% market players say tin prices will maintain in a narrow band this week. Domestic smelters still limited sales due to low prices with selling interest at most smelters in Jiangxi province staying low, curtailing tin supply in the market. This may help support tin prices. However, the weak demand should prevent prices from rising. Thus, these investors expect spot tin prices to hold stable at the current level this week.