SMM Daily Review - 2012/7/2 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 3 (SMM) – On Monday, spot tin prices are mainly between RMB 145,500-148,000/mt in Shanghai tin market. The rally of LME tin prices lifted spot market. Supply in the market was limited and most goods were quoted above RMB 145,500/mt. Jinhai and Yunheng were mainly traded between RMB 145,500-146,000/mt, while most deals for Yunxi were made between RMB 146,000-146,500/mt. Smelters still held offers firm. Although spot tin prices stopped declining, trading sentiment was not boosted, coupled with the remaining weak demand, transactions were modest.

With regard to tin prices this week, 60% market players believe spot tin prices will extend their declines. Last week, the unexpected positive progress made at the EU summit boosted market, driving LME tin prices to rise along with other financial markets, but the increases were limited. Although new plans were proposed during the summit, details for implementing these plans are still unclear, and the European debt issues may not be resolved by the pursuit of economic growth alone. Thus, market aversion may rise again after the influence from the EU summit fades. Coupled with the disappointing manufacturing data for China released at weekend, negative news remained in markets. Since LME tin prices will likely fall again following the brief uptick and since downstream demand in domestic spot market remained weak during the offseason, many consumers were bearish on market outlook, so most investors believe spot tin prices will continue falling this week.

30% market players note spot tin prices should be stable. Although the economic conditions showed no virtual improvement, market concerns were moderated somewhat, so LME tin prices will not fall significantly this week. In China’s domestic spot market, market fundamentals remained relatively stable despite low trading sentiment, and limited supply will give certain support to spot prices. As such, spot prices tend to stabilize this week.

The remaining 10% investors expect tin prices to rise this week, saying LME tin prices will likely increase in the short term due to the rally of LME tin prices at weekend and the better economic situations. In China, although transactions remained weak, spot prices may gain some support from fewer goods supply. These factors will promote spot tin prices.