SMM Morning Review - 2012/3/13 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 13 (SMM) – China’s first-in-ten-year trade deficit in February reported by General Administration of Customs added to worries towards a China slowdown. Commodity investors were mostly standing on the sidelines though, waiting for results of Fed interest rate meeting. Consequently, LME three-month aluminum only closed slightly down by USD 9.3/mt or 0.41% at USD 2,229/mt as transactions and positions dropped in the same time.

The wait-and-see sentiment is expected to stay during today’s trading before the Fed interest rate meeting. As such, SMM expects LME aluminum to test support at USD 2,200/mt and move between USD 2,200-2,250/mt today. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for May delivery is expected stay between RMB 16,140-16,230/mt. Spot discounts over the SHFE current-month aluminum price are expected to be RMB 20-50/mt as staying weak demand erodes support from the nearing delivery date.