SMM Morning Review - 2012/3/8 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 8 (SMM) – Despite progress on Greek debt swap and positive US ADP employment data for February, cautiousness stayed as final results of the Greek debt swap has yet to be released and before release of the US non-farm payroll data on Friday. LME three-month aluminum futures, amid cautious trading and a slight increase of 300 mt in stocks, closed lower for a fourth consecutive trading day at USD 2,213/mt, down USD 19/mt or 0.85%.

Today’s aluminum trading will stay cautious before final decision on Greek aid is made. As such, LME three-month aluminum is expected to move between USD 2,190-2,240/mt as it tests support at USD 2,200/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for May delivery is expected to hover between RMB 16,100-16,180/mt as it struggles near the 60-day moving average. Spot discounts over the SHFE current-month aluminum price are expected to stay between RMB 30-70/mt with limited downward space for the current-month contract. Spot trading will stay light as demand is still mute.