SMM Morning Review - 2012/3/5 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 5 (SMM) – LME three-month aluminum closed down USD 31.3/mt or 1.33% at USD 2,321.8/mt last Friday after a lower German retail sales and a higher Spanish unemployment rate were reported to again ignite worries towards the European debt crisis.

While the situation in Europe is not optimistic, hopes for the two meetings of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and National Committee of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) are expected to help LME three-month aluminum test support at USD 2,300/mt as it moves between USD 2,300-2,350/mt during today's trading. The most active SHFE three-month aluminum contract is expected to open near RMB 16,240/mt and move between RMB 16,200-16,280/mt. Weak fundamentals are expected to maintain spot discounts of RMB 90-140/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price. Supply at low-end prices will remain sufficient as traders split over future price trends. However, the overall traded volume will stay light given weak demand.