SMM Moring Review - 2012/2/14 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Feb. 14 (SMM) – The Greek parliament approved its austerity plan last Sunday, smoothing the way for a second EU bailout. However, the many Greek protests have been putting pressure on execution of the plan. EU finance officials will also vote this Wednesday on aid for the 14.5 billion euro Greek debt maturing in March. Despite climbing US stocks prices, a lack of optimism among investors still pushed the US dollar index above 79. LME aluminum for three-month delivery hit an intraday low of USD 2,207/mt and closed down USD 34/mt or 1.51% overnight at USD 2,217/mt as total aluminum stocks surged over 5.06 million mt. Aluminum was also the worse performer overnight in LME.

SMM expects LME three-month aluminum to test support at the 30-day moving average and move between USD 2180-2240/mt during today’s trading as downgrades for European countries and banks came out successively from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for delivery in May is expected to move between RMB 16,160-16,260/mt. Spot discounts over the SHFE current-month aluminum contract is expected to narrow to RMB 20-70/mt two days away from a shift in the latter. Traded volume will stay depressed since demand improved little.