SHANGHAI, Jan. 16 (SMM) – LME aluminum for three-month delivery dropped to an intraday low of USD 2,116/mt last Friday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded 9 euro zone countries. Better than expected Michigan University Index and leading indicators from the US came later and helped the metal narrowing loss to USD 19.3/mt or 0.89% closing at USD 2,141.3/mt.

As the euro zone debt crisis worsens, SMM expects LME aluminum to give away more gains in last week to test support at the 30-day moving average. The moving band should be USD 2,100-2,150/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for delivery in April is expected to open near RMB 16,150/mt and move between RMB 16,100-16,200/mt. Spot discounts over the SHFE current-month aluminum price are expected to widen to RMB 30-80/mt after the latter shifted to a later month. Light stock replenishment demand at lower prices is expected at large downstream businesses.