SMM Morning Review - 2012/1/13 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 13 (SMM) – A further drop in China’s CPI growth and successful Spanish and Italian debt sales overnight boosted market confidence. An unexpected surge in unemployment claims later in the US to nearly 400,000, however, weakened such support.

LME aluminum hit an intraday high of USD 2,197/mt overnight, but finally closed down 0.53% lower at USD 2,160.5/mt as aluminum stocks surged again by over 10,000 mt and New York crude plunged below USD 100/bbl, outweighing support from aluminum output cuts.

Weak aluminum consumption led to higher LME aluminum stocks and again dragged the metal to the downward track. SMM expects LME aluminum to test support at USD 2,100/mt and move between USD 2,100-2,160/mt during today’s trading. The most active SHFE four-month aluminum contract is expected to test support at the 60-day moving average and move between RMB 16,110-16,210/mt. Spot aluminum is expected to stagnate near RMB 16,000/mt on light trading. Lower selling interest among goods holders will maintain discounts of RMB 20-50/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price.