SMM Morning Review - 2012/1/11 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 11 (SMM) – LME aluminum stocks may continue to drop as China’s cast aluminum and aluminum semis imports surged, Alcoa said to cut 12% output pressured by losses and rumors were heard more aluminum producers will cut output. Such expectation had contributed to a third successive gaining day of LME aluminum, which jumped USD 59/mt or 2.81% to USD 2,158/mt during overnight trading as shorts closed their positions.

SMM expects LME aluminum to test support at USD 2,150/mt and move between USD 2,140-2,190/mt during today’s trading as shorts continue to close their positions. The most active SHFE four-month aluminum contract is expected to hover between RMB 16,100-16,250/mt as it challenges the 60-day moving average. Spot aluminum trading is turning weak day by day as the Chinese New Year nears. Only some goods holders with large stockpiles will actively move goods. Spot aluminum will benefit from strong aluminum futures and trade at discounts of 30/mt to premiums of RMB 10/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price today.