SMM Morning Review - 2011/12/26 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Dec. 26 (SMM) – Despite of inspiring durable goods orders and new home sales data from the US, LME aluminum for three-month delivery closed USD 2.3/mt or 0.11% lower at USD 2,018.8/mt last Friday, as the US dollar index stayed high at 80 and most investors stood on the sidelines due to the nearing of Christmas. Transactions dropped to only around 4,000 lots during the day.

Chinese aluminum is expected to move within a narrow range today lacking direction from LME, which is closed before Wednesday as Christmas is being celebrated. As such, SMM expects the SHFE three-month aluminum contract to struggle near the 10-day moving average and move between RMB 15,800-15,900/mt. Spot discounts over SHFE current-month aluminum are expected to narrow to RMB 0-30/mt as selling interest turns lower among goods holders as a result of weaker consumption pressured by tight cash flow at year’s end on one hand and almost cleared stocks of traders on the other.