SMM Morning Review - 2011/12/12 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Dec. 12 (SMM) – China’s CPI growth continued to drop but industrial output contracted as well, according to data released last Friday. Euro zone countries struck a uniformed fiscal agreement during the day’s EU summit, which helped ease investors’ worries. Such ease, however, was discounted due to a lack of details for the agreement.

The LME aluminum stock surged 43,000 mt last Friday, damping longs’ confidence. While transactions almost dropped by half, the metal ended its straight 5-day drop closing at USD 2,071/mt with a 0.5% gain.

SMM expects LME aluminum to fluctuate between USD 2,050-2,090/mt and the most active SHFE three-month aluminum contract between RMB 16,050-16,150/mt during today’s trading. Traders’ selling interest will be high as the delivery date is near. Spot aluminum is expected to maintain premiums between positive and negative RMB 20/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price. The downstream buying interest will be low, though. The traded volume therefore will stay limited.