SMM Morning Review - 2011/12/2 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Dec. 2 (SMM) – Significantly contracted manufacturing activities in September’s China and euro zone weakened support from a reserve requirement cut by China central bank on the previous day. Better-than-expected manufacturing index from the U.S. alone did not provide much comfort for investors, with the U.S. dollar index consolidating support at the 78 mark.

LME aluminum closed USD 20/mt or 0.95% higher at USD 2,126/mt overnight after falling from USD 2,156.8/mt, the intraday high, due to short selling. Aluminum positions in LME increased 3,911 lots to 975,529 lots. LME aluminum stock decreased 2,700 mt to 4,557,650 mt.

Today’s market focus will be the non-farm payroll data from the U.S. SMM expects LME aluminum to continue test of USD 2,100/mt and fluctuate between USD 2,090-2,140/mt. The most active SHFE three-month aluminum contract is expected fluctuate between RMB 16,080-16,220/mt as it tests support at RMB 16,100/mt. Spot premiums over the SHFE current-month aluminum price are expected to narrow to RMB 0-40/mt. The selling interest will slightly rise among goods holders but the downstream buying interest will remain low.