SMM Morning Review - 2011/11/2 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Nov. 2 (SMM) – Facing grumbles from its people towards austerity measures of the EU bailout plan, the Greek government said overnight that it will put the plan for referendum this Friday, which indicated that Greeks are still not united towards this unprecedented challenge. Uncertainties for the European debt crisis increased again as a result. Meanwhile, investors did not see any shining point in latest manufacturing data from China, UK or America, which added to the bearish market sentiment. The US dollar index, supported by strong haven demand,  again stood back above the 77 mark. LME aluminum, after opening lower, hit an intraday low of USD 2,096.3/mt with a largest 5.5% loss of the day. The metal slightly rebounded at the tail of trading to finally close at USD 2,119/mt, down USD 100/mt or 4.51%.

LME aluminum is expected to slow down during its downward run today as investors gradually get over the panic caused by the unexpected Greek referendum as well pressures from the strong US dollar. However, support at the USD 2,100/mt remains weak. As such, SMM expects LME aluminum to fluctuate between USD 2,080-2,160/mt. The most active SHFE 1201 aluminum contract is expected to gap lower today and fluctuate between RMB 15,800-16,200/mt. Goods holders’ selling interest will be low following a plunge in aluminum futures prices, and spot premiums over the SHFE current-month are expected to be RMB 20-70/mt. The downstream will remain uninterested for any purchases as bearishness gains strength.