SMM Morning Review - 2011/10/24 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Oct. 24 (SMM) – As investors were generally confident a bailout plan will be provided this Wednesday by European leaders, and after US Fed officials said they were considering providing more stimuli amid worries towards economic growth of their country, the US dollar index plunged last Friday, helping LME aluminum rebound. The metal hit an intraday high of USD 2,172/mt during the day, but trimmed gains at the tail of trading due to cautiousness among investors, leading it to close only USD 24.5/mt or 1.16% higher at USD 2,133/mt. Total positions increased 16,731 lots to 868,579 lots during the day.

LME aluminum is expected to test the 5-day moving average today as investors eye on progresses in the EU Summit this Wednesday. The most active SHFE 1112 aluminum contract is expected to open above RMB 16,200/mt today and struggle at the RMB 16,300/mt mark. The mounting capital pressure at month’s end will lead to a higher selling interest among goods holders, but will also lead to an even weaker downstream demand. Spot premiums over the SHFE current-month aluminum price are expected to be RMB 40-90/mt.