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SMM Daily Review - 2011/10/13 Aluminum Market
Oct 14,2011 09:32CST
price review forecast
The most active SHFE aluminum contract closed at RMB 16,660/mt, down RMB 50/mt or 0.3%. Spot aluminum was traded between RMB 16,970-17,000/mt in Shanghai.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 14 (SMM) -- SHFE aluminum contracts opened mixed today. Transactions continuously dropped to 39,526 lots and were mainly for closing positions. After hitting an intraday high of RMB 16,755/mt, the most active SHFE aluminum contract quickly erased gains and finally closed below the 5-day moving average at RMB 16,660/mt, down RMB 50/mt or 0.3% from previous trading day. Positions of the contract decreased 628 lots to 96,516 lots. China’s September CPI is scheduled to be released on Friday, and whether monetary policies will be loosened depends on the inflation control result. The market sentiment is expected to be cautious before this data is announced. The most active aluminum contract is expected to drop toward RMB 16,500/mt after losing the 5-day moving average.

Mainstream traded prices of spot aluminum in Shanghai were between RMB 16,970-17,000/mt on October 13th, with premiums of RMB 50-70/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price. Spot premiums slightly rebounded during the day after SHFE aluminum prices dropped. Investors were uncertain about future aluminum prices. The resistance at RMB 17,000/mt was strong. However, only a few cargo-holders liquidated for cash at lower prices on capital pressure. Transactions were quite limited. In the afternoon, lower end prices of aluminum futures slightly slipped, spot aluminum holders rarely moved goods, with only sparse quotations at RMB 16,950-16,960/mt being seen. Aluminum buyers were uncertain towards future aluminum prices and stood at the sidelines. Deals therefore were hardly seen.

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