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SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/23 Aluminum Market
Sep 23,2011 09:37CST
price review forecast
SMM expects LME aluminum to fluctuate between USD 2,200-2,260/mt, most active SHFE 1112 aluminum contract between RMB 16,600-16,850/mt and spot premiums between RMB 120-170/mt.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 23 (SMM) – Investors sold off their assets in panic overnight due to weak manufacturing data and debt aid discrepancies in Europe and disappointing jobs data and pessimistic Fed economic remarks in the US, with the US dollar index climbing to an intraday high of 78.798 and LME aluminum plunging with commodities to USD 2,224/mt, down USD 106/mt or 4.55%. Total positions of LME aluminum contract decreased 5,401 lots to 747,719 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum to see a slight rebound today following the plunge overnight, but may still move downward due to a generally bearish environment. The fluctuation range today is expected to be USD 2,200-2,260/mt. Most active SHFE 1112 aluminum contract is expected to gap lower below RMB 16,800/mt and fluctuate between RMB 16,600-16,850/mt as rebound is not likely to happen on pessimism among investors. Spot aluminum price is not likely to hit RMB 17,500/mt today due to weak aluminum futures prices. Spot premiums are expected to be RMB 120-170/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum price. With mounting capital pressure at month’s end, market transactions will be sparse.

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