SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/21 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 21 (SMM) – Base metals remained weak on Tuesday. Latest global economic outlook report by IMF lowered US economic growth forecast. US President Obama’s USD 447 billion job plan and USD 3 trillion deficit cut plan will not provide significant confidence for the market in the short term. Market focus will be whether the ongoing Fed interest rate meeting will provide an economic stimulus plan. Investors are cautious at present with so much breaking news.

LME aluminum opened at USD 2,343/mt on September 20th, and closed at USD 2,339/mt after hitting an intraday low of USD 2,323/mt on IMF’s lowering down global economic growth forecast and investor worries towards continuation of the euro zone debt crisis.

SMM expects LME aluminum to fluctuate between USD 2,320-2,350/mt today. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract is expected to open at above RMB 17,100/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,100-17,200/mt as investors are cautious towards the HSBC PMI data to be announced today. Fluctuating prices and scare purchases due to capital pressure have led to contraction in both supply and purchase volumes. Spot premiums are expected to be RMB 100-150/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum contract. Market transactions will be sparse.