SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/19 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 19 (SMM) – Despite a better-than-expected September Consumer Confidence Index released by the University of Michigan on September 16th, huge discrepancies on economic woes in the euro zone as exposed among European finance ministers during the meeting on the same day still boosted investors’ risk aversion demand, pushing up the US dollar index by 0.36% to 76.567.

LME aluminum broke through the 30-day moving average to an intraday high of RMB 2,403.8/mt during initial trading hours on September 16th, but slipped later with renewed investor worries towards the European debt crisis. The metal finally closed with a slight USD 4.8/mt or 0.2% loss at USD 2,375/mt. Total positions increased 14,011 lots to 775,874 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum to struggle at the 5-day moving average and fluctuate between USD 2,350-2,390/mt on September 19th. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract is expected to open at above RMB 17,350/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,300-17,400/mt. Spot premiums over SHFE current-month aluminum prices are expected to climb to RMB 130-180/mt supported by low selling interest at lower prices among goods holders.