SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/13 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 13 (SMM) – Worsening debt crisis and bailout discrepancy in Europe, combined with market doubts over approval of US President Obama’s job act in the Congress again caused risk aversion sentiment to burn in the market, with the euro plunging and the US dollar index stabilizing at 77. European and U.S. stock markets also slipped in response.

After falling below the USD 2,400/mt mark last Friday, LME aluminum prices slipped on September 12th to USD 2,333/mt, a three-week low. After Italy sought help from China, the metal rebounded with New York crude oil at the tail of trading before finally closing at USD 2,375/mt, up USD 8/mt or 0.34%. Total positions increased 864 lots to 761,340 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum to test USD 2,400/mt today supported by climbing New York crude prices and fluctuate between USD 2,370-2,410/mt. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract is expected to open slightly lower at RMB 17,400/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,390-17,500/mt. Spot premiums are expected to be RMB 0-50/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Market transactions will be sparse on strong wait-and-see sentiment which is due to a change of current-month aluminum contract expected this week.