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SMM Daily Review - 2011/9/5 Aluminum Market
Sep 6,2011 09:27CST
price review forecast
Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract closed RMB 70/mt or 0.40% lower at RMB 17,345/mt, spot aluminum was traded between RMB 17,750-17,820/mt during the day with sparse transactions.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 6 (SMM) – Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract opened slightly lower at RMB 17,405/mt on September 5th, due to renewed worries towards US economic recession among investors. After hitting an intraday high of RMB 17,480/mt at the beginning, the contract fell to RMB 17,315/mt, a two-week low, after Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,500 points, and finally closed RMB 70/mt or 0.40% lower at RMB 17,345/mt near the 20-day moving average. Short positions of the contract increased 3,266 lots, thereby adding to selling pressure for the contract. SMM expects most active SHFE aluminum contract to test support at RMB 17,300/mt in the short term.

Morning trading prices of spot aluminum in Shanghai were between RMB 17,780-17,820/mt, with premiums of positive RMB 70-100/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Though goods holders were unwilling to sell at lower prices and most kept quotes firm at RMB 17,800/mt, lower priced supplies were still seen on rare purchases. Nevertheless, overall market transactions were sluggish. Mainstream trading prices of spot aluminum fell to RMB 17,750-17,760/mt in the afternoon with continued falling of SHFE aluminum prices. Spot premiums over SHFE current-month aluminum prices also narrowed to almost zero, with most goods holders unwilling to sell at lower prices and supplies rarely seen. A few middlemen entered the market to build up inventory after spot prices fell, but transactions were sparse.

SMM weekly average price for aluminum ingot was RMB 17,810/mt for the week from August 29th to September 2nd, up slightly by RMB 22/mt or 0.12% from previous week.

Latest SMM survey shows 65% of market respondents are neutral towards future aluminum price trend, as they believe positive factors and negative factors will meet a balance. For example, selling pressure from a dim future for global economy will be offset by supply woes caused by power restrictions in south China, as well as consumption improvement expectations along with progresses of China’s affordable housing projects and warming up of automobile sales in 2H.

26% of respondents are pessimistic towards future aluminum prices. They think aluminum ingot consumption will not likely warm up in the short term, saying that recession worries towards US economy, as fueled by its high unemployment rate, and remaining high inflation pressure in China will damp buying interest thus hugely weaken upward momentum of aluminum prices.

Remaining 9% of respondents are optimistic towards aluminum prices during this week. Their optimism was based on slight improvement of buying interest following alleviation of capital pressure at enterprises, as well as limited stock at goods holders to help keep quotes firm.

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