SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/2 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 2 (SMM) – Manufacturing data released on September 1st were disappointing in Europe, indicating difficulties to improve debt woes in the area, and even though China and US manufacturing data met market expectations, stagnating economic recoveries in the two countries still scared investors away to seek security with US dollar. As a result, the US dollar index surged overnight to 74.714, and LME aluminum prices were pressed down. The loss of LME aluminum prices was limited, however, due to energy attributes of the metal following slight gains of New York crude prices. The metal finally closed at USD 2,450/mt, down USD 21.8/mt or 0.88% from previous trading day. Total positions gained 457 lots to 720,829 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum price to test the 5-day moving average and fluctuate between USD 2,430-2,480/mt. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract is expected to open slightly lower near RMB 17,450/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,400-17,550/mt. Spot premiums are expected to be RMB 60-120/mt supported by increasing purchases from downstream to build-up inventory following alleviated capital pressure. Market supplies will be sufficient and transactions will slightly improve.