SMM Brief Review - 2011/8/16 Aluminum Futures: Gap Filled, Bottom to Move Down

Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

At current spot prices, the smelters generate strong cash flow.

LME aluminum will trade at USD 2,005-2,035/mt on Thursday, and SHFE 1710 aluminum will regain losses seen on Wednesday’s night trading, with price estimated at RMB 16,000-16,250/mt. 

Prebaked anode prices in China’s domestic market rose by about 620 yuan per tonne in January 2017 after Shandong Weiqiao raised its procurement price. 

Henan’s provincial government held an emergency response meeting on December’s 19 night after some local industrial enterprises took no measures to reduce pollution emissions.

The aluminum industry has seen its fair share of ups and downs in 2015.

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) cut aluminum prices by 40-150 yuan per tonne this past week, it said on its WeChat.

The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a deficit during the initial four months of the year.