South China Aluminum: Supply and Demand Plunge with Falling Prices

Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

LME aluminum will trade at USD 2,005-2,035/mt on Thursday, and SHFE 1710 aluminum will regain losses seen on Wednesday’s night trading, with price estimated at RMB 16,000-16,250/mt. 

Output of 10 nonferrous metals jumped 7.2% on a yearly basis to 27.596 million tonnes in the first six months of 2017, according to askci.com.

Rumor has it Shandong will slash aluminum output by over 2 million tonnes, SMM understands.

National Statistics Institute data showed Mexico’s copper output slid on a yearly basis in April, but zinc production jumped, wenhua.com reported.

The main sea freight index at Baltic Exchange for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose above 900 points on Tuesday boosted by an increase in cape, panamax and supramax rates.

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its view to be overweight in commodities as an asset class. For starters, the Federal Reserve is in a monetary-tightening cycle, and this is when commodities tend to fare

The main sea freight index at Baltic Exchange for ships carrying dry bulk commodities gained further to 1338 points on Wednesday led by higher panamax rate.