[SMM Analysis]Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell During the Week, Warrant Generation Set to Begin May Introduce New Market Variables

Iron ore futures moved downwards after a higher opening today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 800 yuan, down 0.12% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach and purchased as needed. Market trading activity was moderate.

SMM News: On the evening of September 16, Beijing time, after U.S. stocks opened, rare earth concept stocks bucked the trend and strengthened. USA Rare Earth's stock price surged over 15% at the opening, American Resources rose over 9%, and MP Materials gained over 3%. Although this round of gains was directly driven by market sentiment, it fundamentally reflects investors' strong expectations for the recent intensive rare earth industry support policies introduced by the Trump administration.

The Southeast Asian steel industry stands at a critical historical juncture. On one hand, the region is experiencing an unprecedented wave of capacity expansion, with Chinese capital-driven investments planning to add over 100 million mt of new capacity, and a duopoly between Vietnam and Indonesia has already taken shape. On the other hand, the EU carbon border tax and global decarbonization requirements are compelling industry to undergo a green transformation, posing severe challenges to traditional development models. Key trends indicate that a capacity race and green transformation are advancing in tandem; regional supply chains are being restructured, with self-sufficiency rates increasing, yet high-end products still rely on imports; national infrastructure projects provide solid support for demand, but the risk of overcapacity cannot be ignored. The key to future competition lies in balancing scale expansion with quality improvement, traditional capacity with green transformation, and short-term gains with long-term sustainability. Enterprises that can achieve breakthroughs in low-carbon technologies, product structures, and market positioning will take the lead in the next round of industrial reshuffling. The major transformation in Southeast Asia's steel industry is not only reshaping the regional industrial landscape but also profoundly impact global steel trade and supply chains.

SMM News: On September 16, the Pr-Nd alloy was quoted at 700,000-710,000 yuan/mt, down by 5,000 yuan/mt compared with September 15. On September 17, the Pr-Nd alloy was quoted at 695,000-705,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 5,000 yuan/mt. The Pr-Nd alloy market experienced two consecutive declines after a rapid rise. Behind the declines, the end of rigid demand and the lack of sustained demand growth support were undoubtedly the most important factors. 

Iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 804.5, down 0.12% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell, while steel mills mainly purchased as needed. Market trading sentiment was moderate.