Retail sales of passenger NEVs in April were up 33.9% YoY. SHFE tin prices are likely to fluctuate rangebound. [SMM Morning Tin Report]

SMM Tin Morning News on May 12, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) hit bottom and rebounded during the night session. After hitting bottom twice at 258,000 yuan/mt during the night session, it rebounded to close at 261,650 yuan/mt, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with total open interest reaching 30,500 lots.

Macro: (1) Ambassador Wang Di stated that last year, Canada unilaterally imposed tariffs on China. We have been maintaining communication with the Canadian government, but unfortunately, despite China's repeated dissuasions, Canada still imposed unilateral tariffs on China. After investigation, China determined that these tariffs were indeed discriminatory measures targeting China, so we took corresponding countermeasures. (Bearish ★) (2) He Lifeng, the Chinese lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations and Vice Premier of the State Council, held high-level economic and trade talks with Beth Sant, the US lead negotiator and US Treasury Secretary, and Katherine Tai, the US Trade Representative, in Geneva, Switzerland. Both sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions on implementing the important consensus reached during the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state on January 17, reaching a series of important consensus and making substantive progress in the talks. (Bullish ★) (3) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): In April, retail sales of passenger NEVs increased by 33.9% YoY, and retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 14.5% YoY. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Production resumptions are underway in the Wa region of Myanmar, and the ore supply tightness has only marginally eased. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed work, and the demand for restocking at lower prices was somewhat released, but transactions at higher prices remained sluggish. Solder enterprises have stable orders but no significant increase, and the US's electronic tariff policy on China has dampened downstream restocking expectations.

Spot Market: Trading in the spot market was relatively mediocre last Friday. Most traders reported that transactions were within one truckload, and customers' willingness to inquire and purchase was low. Some downstream and end-user enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement.