The Ministry of Commerce will continue to deepen the construction of international consumption center cities and support the expansion of inbound consumption. Domestic spot market transactions are not as hot as in previous periods [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on April 28, 2025:

Futures Market: Last week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) exhibited a pattern of considerable fluctuations, characterized by "jump initially and then pull back—recover and rebound—face pressure again," with the price center fluctuating within the range of 255,000-262,400 yuan/mt, and an amplitude of 2.9%. For example, on April 23, the intraday high reached 259,400 yuan/mt, but due to the news of the US imposing tariff hikes on Southeast Asian solar products, the price pulled back to 258,670 yuan/mt. On April 24, after briefly surging to 262,400 yuan/mt, the price pulled back and ultimately closed at 259,520 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.36% from the previous day.

Macro: (1) Macro risk premium: The US-China tariff stalemate has shown signs of partial easing (the US Treasury Secretary stated that the 145% tariff is "unsustainable"), but uncertainties remain regarding the pace of policy implementation, causing market sentiment to fluctuate repeatedly. (Bullish★) (2) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to "the US President's statement that he may significantly reduce tariffs on China" and "the White House's statement that progress has been made in negotiations on the US-China trade agreement": Regarding the tariff war initiated by the US, we are unwilling to fight but not afraid to fight; if the US side truly wants to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiations, it should cease threats and extortion, and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. (Bullish★) (3) Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce: A batch of international consumption clusters and inbound consumption-friendly business districts will be established, and the finance department is studying special fund support. (Bullish★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is resuming production in phases, with daily average production recovering to 60%-70% of normal levels, and the ore supply tightness has only marginally eased. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: Traditional solder exports are suppressed by the US's 245% tariff (accounting for 40% of demand). (Bearish★)

Tin Ingot Market: Trading is sluggish, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Spot transactions are mainly driven by rigid procurement, with a daily average trading volume of 30-50 mt. Traders have reported that high prices have suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and the premium has narrowed to the range of 200-1,200 yuan/mt.