The tariff war continues to escalate, steel prices are expected to maintain sideways movement next week [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

게시됨: Mar 28, 2025 18:00 (GMT+8)

저장

The ferrous metals series experienced a volatile trend this week, with the overall average price slightly increasing. On the news front, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, while attending the "China Development Forum 2025 Annual Meeting," stated that China has prepared for potential "external unexpected shocks" and will introduce new incremental policies if necessary...

Forecast for Next Week: Tariff War Escalates, Steel Prices to Continue Sideways Movement

This week, the ferrous metals series showed a mixed trend, with the overall average price moving slightly upward. On the news front, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, while attending the "China Development Forum 2025 Annual Meeting," stated that China has prepared for potential "external unexpected shocks" and will introduce new incremental policies if necessary to ensure the stable operation of the Chinese economy. On the 22nd, the 2025 High-Quality Development Conference for the Steel Industry, guided by the China Iron and Steel Association and hosted by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, was held in Beijing. Jiang Wei, in his speech at the conference, suggested effectively closing the entry for new capacity, and some regional steel enterprises in China indicated that they might appropriately control crude steel production in the near future. Mid-week, the Ministry of Finance's report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy in 2024 mentioned that the fiscal policy in 2025 should be more proactive, continuously and more forcefully supporting the comprehensive expansion of domestic demand. Additionally, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market to Cover the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries," marking the first expansion of the industry coverage of the national carbon emission trading market. In the spot market, steel prices jumped initially and then pulled back this week, with poor market sentiment in the latter half of the week and weak spot transactions.

Looking ahead to next week, domestic production restriction rumors and the ongoing global tariff war will continue to disturb the market. On the industrial side, blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, pig iron production continues to increase, and raw material price support is strengthening. In terms of steel, apparent demand continued to rebound this week, but the growth rate slowed down MoM. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound next week, with no strong driver to break through the current upper and lower limits.

Iron Ore: Iron Ore Prices Strengthen, Expected to Continue Upward Fluctuation Next Week

Looking ahead to next week, although steel mill profits are marginally narrowing, they remain resilient. Supported by the traditional peak demand season, the consumption of major steel products is expected to continue to increase slightly, with total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. With low inventory operations, steel mills have high production enthusiasm, and pig iron production still has room to rise. Additionally, the release of restocking demand from some steel mills before the Qingming holiday is expected to continue to strengthen iron ore consumption, supporting ore prices. However, it should be noted that the unresolved crude steel production restriction policy continues to disturb the market, and the new US tariffs on China, effective on April 2, are exacerbating risk aversion. Moreover, the imminent contract rollover of the most-traded contract may amplify futures market fluctuations. Overall, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate upward next week, but the upside room may be relatively limited due to policy uncertainty.

Coke: Rigid Demand for Coke Increases, Coke Market May Stabilize Next Week

Key Points: In terms of supply, most coke enterprises still have profits. Based on profit strategies, coke supply is relatively stable, and shipment conditions have improved, with coke enterprise inventory continuing to decline. In terms of demand, recent steel mill finished product inventory has been declining, and profits are good, with pig iron production continuously increasing, creating rigid procurement demand for coke, reducing control over arrival conditions. In terms of raw material fundamentals, coking coal production in coal mines is stable, maintaining normal production rhythms. However, recent improvements in steel mill sales and gradual resumption of production have reduced the sentiment to suppress raw material prices, increasing purchase enthusiasm. Online auctions have seen more rises than falls, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. In summary, downstream rigid demand for coke has increased, and the short-term supply-demand imbalance for coke has weakened. The coke market may stabilize this week.

Rebar: Terminal Restocking Demand Before the Holiday, Building Material Prices May Have Upward Momentum Next Week

This week, rebar prices rose and then stabilized. The upward movement of rebar futures drove both market volume and price, but market merchants operated cautiously, focusing on shipments after the rise, which somewhat suppressed the height of the increase. On the industrial side, several steel mills in Xinjiang, to continue implementing the Xinjiang crude steel production control, announced a daily crude steel production cut of 10% starting immediately. SMM actively followed up and learned that this production cut is mainly for short-term control. Additionally, individual steel mills in the northwest are upgrading their rolling lines, which will reduce building material supply by 20% in April. Other regions' blast furnace steel mills are maintaining their current production rhythms, while the operating rate of 50 main building material electric furnace steel mills nationwide is 39.68%, down 0.5% WoW. The operating rates in east China and central China have slightly declined, mainly due to reduced profits leading to shorter operating hours. In the short term, the operating rate is more likely to decrease than increase, with overall building material supply fluctuating rangebound. On the demand side, the price increase this week drove some speculative demand activity. However, downstream terminals, affected by low fund availability, saw demand recovery strength lower than market expectations, with overall market sentiment remaining cautious. National rebar inventory continued to decline this week, but the destocking range did not significantly expand. Looking ahead, after this week's price increase, market merchants focused on shipments and were cautious about restocking. However, some terminals may restock before the Qingming holiday next week. It is expected that building material spot prices will remain relatively stable with a strong trend next week, and the most-traded rebar contract RB2505 may fluctuate between 3,100-3,300.

HRC: Supply-Demand Structure Temporarily Maintained, HRC Futures May Continue Narrow Fluctuations Next Week

This week, HRC futures prices rose initially and then fell, with a narrow weekly fluctuation range. On the fundamental side, some steel mills still have maintenance plans within this week, with HRC production fluctuating rangebound. Market transactions rose initially and then fell, with traders showing strong shipment enthusiasm. Social inventory decline expanded, and steel mills actively shipped, resulting in a total inventory of 5.4255 million mt, down 283,800 mt WoW. Looking ahead, entering April, steel mill maintenance will temporarily end. Driven by substantial profits, production will increase, but the short-term growth rate will not be that large. Downstream manufacturing demand can still maintain resilient release, and inventory is expected to continue destocking next week. According to the SMM survey, pig iron will continue to rebound, and cost support will remain stable. Overall, HRC will maintain seasonal destocking in the short term, with macro factors in a vacuum period. HRC apparent demand is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand, guarding against a demand pullback that could cool market sentiment. It is expected that the HC2505 contract may fluctuate between 3,330-3,430 next week.

Steel Scrap: Supply-Demand in Tight Balance, Follow-Up Focus on Demand Recovery

On the supply side, steel scrap resources are relatively tight, with merchants operating in a fast-in, fast-out mode. Steel scrap yards face significant purchase pressure, and overall arrival conditions are poor. On the demand side, blast furnace steel mills have reduced their willingness to use steel scrap due to its cost-performance disadvantage, but the steel scrap ratio has slightly increased due to seasonal demand recovery. Electric furnace steel mills have slightly reduced operations due to poor profitability, with the operating rate of electric furnace steel mills at 39.68% this week, down 0.5% WoW, and demand has contracted. Overall, the supply-demand for steel scrap is currently in a tight balance, with some recovery in demand but overall still weak. Follow-up focus should be on demand recovery.

1. For data involved in the report, please visit the SMM database (https://data-pro.smm.cn/).
2. For more content on SMM steel information, analysis reports, databases, etc., please contact Li Ping from the SMM Steel Business Department at 021-51595782.

*The views in this report are based on market information collected and the comprehensive evaluation of the SMM research team. The information provided in the report is for reference only, and risks are borne by the user. This report does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this report to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM. Additionally, any losses and responsibilities caused by unauthorized or illegal use of the views in this report are unrelated to SMM. SMM reserves the right to modify and interpret the terms of this statement.

데이터 출처 설명: 공개 정보를 제외한 모든 데이터는 SMM이 공개 정보, 시장 커뮤니케이션 및 SMM 내부 데이터베이스 모델을 기반으로 가공한 것입니다. 본 자료는 참고용이며 의사결정 권고를 구성하지 않습니다.

문의 사항이 있거나 자세한 정보를 원하시면 아래로 연락해 주시기 바랍니다: lemonzhao@smm.cn

리서치 보고서 열람 방법에 대한 자세한 내용은 아래로 문의하시기 바랍니다:service.en@smm.cn

관련 뉴스

7분 전

[SMM 철강] 유럽 열연코일의 암류: 수입 무관심 속 주문 확보 위해 스페인에서 양보하는 북부 제철소들

[SMM 철강] 유럽 열연코일의 암류: 수입 무관심 속 주문 확보 위해 스페인에서 양보하는 북부 제철소들

[유럽] 유럽 열연코일(HRC) 생산업체들이 부진한 내수 수요로 인한 판매 압박을 완화하기 위해 스페인 시장에서 가격 양보를 제시하고 있으며, 특히 북부 밀(mill)들이 '가격보다 물량' 전략을 점점 더 채택하고 있다. 가격 측면에서 북서유럽 HRC 공장도 가격은 4유로/톤 하락한 730유로/톤 EXW(829달러/톤)를 기록했고, 이탈리아 공장도 가격은 736유로/톤 EXW(836달러/톤)로 보합세를 유지했다. 거래 측면에서는 최근 약 1,000톤 규모의 주문이 스페인 인도 조건으로 743유로/톤 DDP(844달러/톤)에 체결되었으며, 12월 압연 일정에 대해 협상 여지를 넓힌 밀들이 늘어나고 있다. 이탈리아 내수 시장에서는 서비스센터가 여전히 저가 재고를 상당량 보유하고 있고 하류 수요도 지속적으로 위축되어 있어, 고가 현물 거래는 체결되기 어려운 상황이다. 수입 부문에서는 시장 매력이 뚜렷하게 감소했으며, 해외 수출업체들은 EU향 예약 활동이 정체되었다고 보고했다. 극동 지역의 지나치게 긴 리드타임 외에도, '용해·주조' 원산지 추적 규정 준수에 대한 구매자들의 우려가 높아지면서 관망 심리가 더욱 심화되었다. 특히 이탈리아향 터키 HRC 오퍼는 대부분 560~590유로/톤 CFR 이탈리아(635~670달러/톤, 반덤핑 관세 제외)에 집중되었다.

7분 전

16분 전

[SMM 철강] 튀르키예 철근 약세: 저가 트레이더 오퍼가 제강사 호가 압박하며 현물 거래 정체

[SMM 철강] 튀르키예 철근 약세: 저가 트레이더 오퍼가 제강사 호가 압박하며 현물 거래 정체

[튀르키예] 튀르키예 철근 시장의 거래가 사실상 중단됐다. 제강사들은 10월 말까지 생산 일정이 사실상 확정되어 물량을 처분해야 할 긴박한 필요성이 적지만, 더 낮은 가격에 물건을 내놓는 트레이더들의 매도 압력으로 인해 일부 생산업체들이 소폭의 가격 양보를 시작했다. 내수 시장에서 튀르키예 철근 공장도 가격은 630달러/톤 EXW(부가가치세 제외)로 변동 없이 유지됐다. 마르마라 지역 주요 제강사들의 공장도 기준 제시 가격은 650달러/톤 EXW에 머물렀으며, 이즈미르와 이스켄데룬 소재 생산업체들은 625달러/톤 EXW를 제시했다. 그러나 차익 실현에 나선 트레이더들은 대체로 제강사 가격보다 5달러/톤 낮은 수준에 물량을 내놓고 있으며, 일부 제강사들도 10월 말 인도분 주문에 대해 5달러/톤의 협상 여지를 시사했다. 수출 부문에서 튀르키예 철근 가격은 615달러/톤 FOB로 보합세를 유지했다. 대부분의 제강사 제시 가격은 명목상 640~650달러/톤 FOB의 높은 수준을 유지했으며, 일부 생산업체는 주 초반 5달러/톤 인상을 시도하기도 했으나 해외 거래는 여전히 극도로 부진했다.

16분 전

2시간 전

[인도 철도, 오디샤 바르빌-볼라니카단 노선 복선화에 12억 2천만 루피 승인]

[인도 철도, 오디샤 바르빌-볼라니카단 노선 복선화에 12억 2천만 루피 승인]

인도 철도는 오디샤주 동남부 철도 관할의 6km 바르빌–볼라니카단 구간 복선화를 122억 루피(약 1,980억 원)의 비용으로 승인했다. 현재 단선 구간은 연간 약 900만 톤의 화물을 수송하며, 전량 고급 철광석과 펠릿이 SAIL 볼라니 광산 및 민간 전용선에서 제철소와 항만으로 운송된다. 복선화가 완료되면 연간 890만 톤의 추가 수송이 가능해지고 화물열차 지연이 줄어든다. “에너지·광물·시멘트 회랑”의 일부인 이 사업은 SAIL의 광산 확장과 신규 항만·공장 능력 확충에 앞서 혼잡을 방지하는 것을 목표로 한다.

2시간 전