Myanmar's Resumption of Production Is Expected to Suppress Upside Room; The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Fluctuate at High Levels [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on March 10, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) exhibited a high-level upward fluctuation pattern, closing at 262,810 yuan/mt, up 0.34% from the previous trading day. In the morning session, prices fluctuated within the range of 261,020-263,600 yuan/mt, while in the afternoon, they remained rangebound, ultimately settling near 263,000 yuan/mt. Intraday trading was active, with the turnover of the most-traded contract reaching 22.626 billion yuan.

Domestic smelters maintained normal operations, while Indonesia's February exports resumed, and expectations for the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, intensified. Although the market has reached a consensus on the ample supply of tin concentrates, it should be noted that the actual resumption of production in Myanmar will still require at least a three-month preparation period. Additionally, the current tin concentrate TC has dropped to 12,500 yuan/mt (metal content) (a historical low), exerting pressure on smelter profits, which may limit short-term supply growth. Policy benefits continue to ferment, with the State Council's "trade-in" policy supporting high production schedules for white home appliances. Meanwhile, just-in-time procurement in the spot market has increased as downstream sectors such as consumer electronics and PV enter their traditional peak season. The US dollar index has fallen for five consecutive days to around 103.8, boosting overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector.

• ​Short Term (1 Week)​: SHFE tin is expected to fluctuate considerably within the range of 240,000-275,000 yuan/mt, with the core fluctuation range at 255,000-265,000 yuan/mt. If the US dollar weakens further or policy benefits materialize, prices may test the upper boundary of the range.
• ​Medium Term (1-3 Months)​: The progress of Myanmar's production resumption and the strength of domestic consumption during the peak season are key variables. If Wa State's supply increases significantly, tin prices may face downward pressure; however, if demand for AI semiconductors and PV exceeds expectations, high-level support will be strengthened.